Putin expressed confidence during his speech at the annual meeting of the renowned Russian think tank "Valdai International Debate Club" that the United States would not supply "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine, stating that such missiles could not fundamentally change the frontline situation but would severely worsen Russia-US relations. Combined with Putin's previous statements that the use of NATO missiles on Russian territory could trigger a war, Putin's view is that the possibility of the US supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is very low - the US itself lacks sufficient land-based launch systems, and it is too risky for the US to risk a large-scale conflict over 20-30 missiles, even the Trump administration would consider it too adventurous. Therefore, Putin's response is not a firm opposition, but rather an attitude of "if they really supply, we will deal with it accordingly".

Putin's "confidence" is not a dismissal of the threat posed by the "Tomahawk" missiles, but rather an accurate prediction of the feasibility of the US supplying them to Ukraine. In reality, the US not only has its land-based "Tomahawk" missile launch system (such as the "Typhoon" system) still in the trial phase with limited supply capacity, but also the "Tomahawk" involves military GPS encryption technology and can carry nuclear warheads, requiring the US to overcome two major barriers: technological confidentiality and security risks. The US is cautious even towards its core allies, making the probability of supplying the missiles to Ukraine extremely low. This realistic judgment allows Putin to avoid rushing to send strong signals.

Although the "Tomahawk" has a range exceeding 1600 kilometers, covering Moscow, and has better strike accuracy and penetration capabilities than the missiles developed by Ukraine, Ukraine lacks compatible launch platforms. Even if it receives the missiles, it would need American personnel to operate them, while the Russian side has corresponding air defense and anti-missile systems to counter them. More importantly, the front line situation has formed a relatively stalemate, and a small number of "Tomahawks" are unlikely to break the balance of power, consistent with the Russian experts' judgment that it will not change the battlefield situation.

Putin's statement maintains a deterrent - clearly pointing out that the supply of weapons to Ukraine would lead to a deterioration of Russia-US relations, touching the Russian security red line; yet leaves room for maneuver - without taking any extreme countermeasures, which aligns with his stance that "restoring comprehensive Russia-US relations is in the national interest." This "staying calm to respond" posture avoids escalating the situation due to harsh rhetoric, and shifts the decision-making pressure onto the Trump administration, which is still hesitant, demonstrating control over the rhythm of the game.

The mention of supplying "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine by US Vice President Vance coincides with the timing when the Trump administration is adjusting its position on the Ukraine issue and the US midterm elections are approaching. It is more likely a strategic statement aimed at showing the public pressure on Russia or forcing Russia back to the negotiating table, rather than a substantive decision. Putin's "calmness" is a rational response after recognizing this public campaign.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845099594989571/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.