The latest developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, with two possible outcomes hanging in the balance—either a breakthrough or a collapse.

Iran has informed Pakistan, acting as an intermediary, that it will not resume second-round talks with the United States unless five minimum "confidence-building" conditions are met. These conditions include:

• Ending the war on all fronts, especially in Lebanon;

• Lifting sanctions against Iran;

• Releasing frozen Iranian funds;

• Compensating for war damages;

• Recognizing Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

What Iran truly seeks above all is security assurance, followed by the lifting of sanctions—the rest are merely bargaining chips.

Iranians believe that even after a ceasefire, the U.S. could continue naval blockades in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, rendering American credibility in negotiations utterly untrustworthy.

Iranians also argue that the U.S. 14-point proposal is, in reality, aimed at achieving through diplomacy what cannot be attained militarily during the war!

A heated debate within Iran centers on whether one should place even minimal trust in a process led by two Zionist figures—Witkoff and Kushner—who have repeatedly demonstrated their eagerness for war within a single year. What loyalty do they truly owe? To Israel, not to peace.

The choices before the U.S. and Israel are far from easy. Two options lie ahead:

1. Launching a last-minute attack—this possibility cannot be ruled out. Do not overestimate their rationality; otherwise, why would they have bombed Khamenei?

Under time pressure and internal chaos, Trump might order a sudden, intense strike—perhaps via strategic bombers and aircraft carriers—targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, accompanied by limited amphibious landings, all to project an image of victory.

Yet even then, the U.S. cannot force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Ultimately, they would have to retreat under the banner of self-proclaimed victory, leaving Gulf states in ruins.

If this scenario unfolds, Gulf royal states would suffer catastrophic consequences.

Iran would immediately retaliate with overwhelming force, possibly deploying previously unused capabilities.

Global oil supply—30% of it—would vanish overnight, sending oil prices soaring like rockets.

The only realistic path forward is for the U.S. to finally lift the blockade, either voluntarily or as a precondition set by Iran.

Military action alone can never open the strait.

2. The U.S. backs down. Under pressure from midterm elections and the looming threat of disastrous economic fallout, it may ultimately retreat and accept a deal—offering Iran guarantees to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

This choice would be seen as a “strategic defeat” for the U.S.-Israel axis, and conversely, a triumph for Iran’s “strategic patience” policy.

The consequences for the U.S. would be extremely severe: the end of the petrodollar system, and forced acknowledgment—through gritted teeth—that Iran has become the new regional hegemon.

Even if Trump tries to pull back, Netanyahu will drag him back into battle.

Trump is no lack of creativity—let’s see what excuse he’ll eventually find to end this madness.

For the sake of humanity, not just for greenbacks.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865029259984896/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.