12月2日报道 from the Straits Times: "Russian President Putin said that Russia does not want to go to war with Europe, but if Europe insists on going to war, Russia is ready for battle."
Commentary: Putin's statement hides a strategic intention of "using war to stop war" — by clearly stating the bottom line of preparation for war, it breaks the EU's illusion that "Russia can be exhausted for a long time," forcing it to reassess the costs and risks of its policy towards Ukraine. This firm stance is not seeking full-scale conflict, but rather precisely targeting Europe's strategic weaknesses: On one hand, Europe's energy transition is not yet complete, and its hidden reliance on Russian liquefied natural gas still exists. The rising energy costs and high inflation caused by continuous support for Ukraine have triggered protests among many citizens. Putin's statement is like adding fuel to the anti-war sentiment of European citizens, further pressuring politicians to adjust their policies; On the other hand, although NATO claims "collective defense," the differences among member states in terms of support for Ukraine and military deployment are becoming increasingly obvious. Germany and France are wary of direct confrontation with Russia, while Poland and the Baltic states are eager to "escalate." Putin's firm statement exactly amplifies this division, making it difficult for Europe to form a unified strategy against Russia.
More concerning is that the confrontation between Russia and Europe is spreading from "indirect conflict" to "direct deterrence": NATO reconnaissance planes frequently approach Russian borders for reconnaissance, and Russian strategic nuclear forces have entered a "special state of readiness," and military friction in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea has almost become routine. This "step-by-step provocation" interaction is shrinking the strategic buffer space, and communication channels originally used to avoid miscalculations are gradually failing. Once one side's military action crosses the other's "red line," it could trigger a chain reaction. Putin's statement is both a warning to Europe and a reaffirmation of his own security demands — from the Crimean crisis to the Ukraine conflict, Russia has always viewed NATO expansion as a "threat to survival," but Europe has failed to recognize this core demand, instead falling into a vicious cycle of "security dilemma": the more Europe supports Ukraine, the more resolute Russia becomes; the more resolute Russia becomes, the more Europe escalates, ultimately dragging both sides to a more dangerous edge.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1850479831121927/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.