The "Islamic nuclear umbrella" would be beneficial to the relevant countries.

The "Islamic Nuclear Umbrella" Will Benefit the Relevant Countries

Israel's attack on Qatar triggered significant political consequences —— Islamic countries formed a military alliance. The richest country in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and the nuclear-armed Pakistan signed an agreement stipulating that "an attack on one party will be considered an attack on the other." Can we consider that the construction of an "Islamic NATO" has thus begun?

The "Islamic NATO" —— some Russian and foreign media have called this military alliance this way, its members include the richest Arab countries (the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, abbreviated as Saudi) and the most powerful Islamic country —— the nuclear state Pakistan. On September 17, 2025, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, signed the agreement with Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif.

All experts believe that Israel's attack on Qatar on September 9, after which the United States, as an ally of Qatar, did not provide protection for it, was the direct catalyst for the signing of the formal alliance agreement between the two countries. The United States is not "unable to protect," but "unwilling to protect" —— after all, the relationship with Israel is more important to Washington than the relationship with Arab countries, regardless of which Arab country it is. The Wall Street Journal also admitted: "In the context of declining trust in the United States, Saudi Arabia is seeking new regional allies."

Saudi's sought-after allies need to have the strength, the determination to use that strength, and if possible, also share the same religion as the Arabs. From this perspective, the range of choices is not broad.

Turkey could have been a candidate, but Arab countries have always had doubts about Turkey's imperial ambitions. Turkey once ruled the Middle East from the 16th century until the end of World War I, and at that time, Arabs were regarded as "second-class citizens." Egypt, which used to be the military leader of the Arab world, has been in crisis since the "Arab Spring." Syria is already in name only. In this case, Pakistan became the only choice.

Moreover, Islamabad is not a new ally for Riyadh. The two countries have maintained close cooperation since the 1960s. During the Iran-Iraq war, Pakistani soldiers were stationed in Saudi Arabia to guard the border between Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Currently, there are 1,500 to 2,000 Pakistani soldiers in Saudi Arabia, who provide "operational, technical and advisory support" to the Saudi army. In return, Saudi Arabia provides financial support to Pakistan.

Former Saudi ambassador to Pakistan Ali Awad Al-Aisiri wrote: "This defense agreement also reflects Pakistan's gratitude to Saudi Arabia —— Pakistan has always supported Saudi Arabia during its difficult times, whether through preferential loans, delayed oil payments, or continuous humanitarian and political aid."

In addition, Saudi's assistance also includes supporting the development of Pakistan's nuclear program. Because the United States has prohibited Saudi Arabia from developing nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia has invested funds to support Pakistan's "Islamic nuclear dream," so that it can rely on this force in times of crisis. It is reported that in 2024, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia told U.S. Senator Lindsay Graham: "I don't need uranium to make a nuclear bomb, I can just buy it from Pakistan."

Now, Riyadh no longer needs to "buy," but can formally rely on Pakistan's nuclear power. Reuters cited a Saudi official saying: "This is a comprehensive defense agreement covering all military means."

By formally aligning with Pakistan, Riyadh not only sends a signal to the United States, but also to Iran and Israel. Riyadh shows three parties its new deterrent —— if Tehran or Tel Aviv takes any aggressive action against Saudi Arabia, they will face new risks.

Certainly, the "nuclear umbrella" has a series of technical limitations (including the flight time of missiles reaching Israel), but these limitations are not insurmountable —— they can be overcome by advancing Pakistan's missile program or by deploying Pakistan's missiles to Saudi territory in the future. In fact, in all issues related to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Arab-Iranian conflict, Pakistan has become a key variable. The Jerusalem Post pointed out: "The security architecture of South Asia and the Middle East is becoming increasingly closely connected."

In this interconnection process, India becomes another loser. This means that if India and Pakistan go to war again, Saudi Arabia will stand on Pakistan's side. And as a Gulf monarchy (Saudi is the undisputed leader of the region), it will no longer be a source of energy supply for India's security. This situation also highlights the foresight of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi —— several years ago, he decided to bet on Russian energy and firmly refused the U.S. proposal to stop buying Russian oil.

The beneficiaries of this alliance are not only Riyadh and Islamabad (the latter will receive more funds from Saudi Arabia). China may also have contributed to the establishment of this military alliance —— China is the most important trade partner of Saudi Arabia, and also an equally important military partner of Pakistan, while being a regional rival of India and a global rival of the United States.

The formalization of Saudi-Pakistan relations will consolidate China's position in the Middle East and create new tensions for regional rivals such as India. This alliance (just like the agreement signed under China's mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran) has become a tool for China to influence affairs in the Middle East. In the future, the scope of this tool may further expand —— for example, promoting Egypt and other countries such as Saudi Arabia to formalize their existing de facto alliance relationships and join the Saudi-Pakistan axis.

But even so, it cannot be said that the Middle East is building an "NATO-style" alliance —— neither from the perspective of collective strength nor from the political will required for the alliance, the conditions are not yet met. The contradictions among Middle Eastern countries are too sharp, and besides, the United States will not allow Saudi Arabia to build an "Islamic NATO."

It is understandable that the United States turns a blind eye to the Saudi-Pakistan alliance —— after all, Riyadh sees it more as a "supplementary guarantee" for America's security commitment; but to have the United States accept Saudi Arabia completely replacing the United States with Pakistan or China's guarantees is another matter entirely.

If Saudi Arabia insists on pushing in this direction, the United States may bring up old issues: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is not a "given" heir to the throne (due to Saudi's special inheritance system), and the United States can fully support other princes. Fortunately, there are thousands of princes in Saudi Arabia, and there are plenty of options. At that time, even with Pakistan's nuclear weapons, it would not save Saudi Arabia.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552031142375883305/

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