What Will Russia's Recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Bring?
Author: Ghevorg Mirzayan - Associate Professor at the Financial University
Russia has become the first country in the world to formally recognize the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan. What impact will this have on Central Asia, what is Moscow's purpose in this move, who will be next to recognize the Taliban government, and how might the Afghan leadership respond to Russia's action?
Russia has officially recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. In short, it means recognizing the "Taliban" as the official government in the country. This news was announced by Vladimir Putin's special representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kablov.
Naturally, this decision was not unexpected. "I think it's just a logical progressive development. Initially, we observed the situation in Afghanistan and engaged in dialogue with the Taliban. When the Russian leadership was convinced that the 'Taliban' had no intention of invading other countries and there was a possibility of cooperation, Moscow took action. First, they removed the designation of the 'Taliban' as a terrorist organization, and then provided diplomatic recognition," said Nikita Mendekovich, head of the Eurasia Analysis Club, to "Gazeta Obrasheniya."
Correspondingly, on July 1st, the new ambassador of Afghanistan arrived in Moscow. On July 3rd, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko accepted his letter of credence. The new flag (white background with black text) was raised above the Afghan embassy in Moscow, replacing the black-red-green tricolor flag of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan used from 2004 to 2021.
As Dmitry Zhirnov, Russia's ambassador to Kabul, pointed out, this recognition decision "shows Russia's sincere desire to establish a comprehensive partnership with Afghanistan." However, Russia's intention is certainly not altruistic.
Firstly, Moscow recognizes the objective reality. "Russia's current policy towards the Afghan government depends on the fact that we only have this Afghanistan before us. At present, an extreme government has formed in Afghanistan, which is indeed different from most governments in the region. But we cannot run away to the other end of the earth like the United States. Therefore, we need to establish relations with the current regime that reflects the current mode of social development in Afghanistan," said Nikita Mendekovich.
Moreover, do not expect a change in the Kabul regime. The Taliban (unlike armed groups that came to power in Damascus) have proven their stability — nearly four years have passed since the Americans withdrew.
"For the first time in years, the central government in Afghanistan controls the entire territory and is committed to ensuring a peaceful environment," said the Afghan representative.
The Afghan representative stated that they are interested in peaceful coexistence with neighboring countries and developing their own economy. These efforts have already shown initial results," said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Ovechkin.
Additionally, potential alternatives to the Taliban would not be democrats or liberals, nor even secular dictators like Gaddafi or old Assad (such people could not exist in Afghanistan's tribal society). The alternatives would be radical Islamicists. Unlike the current Taliban, these people might bet on external expansion. Therefore, recognizing the "Taliban" helps consolidate this movement's regime — which is by no means the worst choice from Russia's perspective.
"The Taliban government has shown no aggressive behavior towards Russia. It has adopted a policy of combating terrorism and drug trafficking," reminded Nikita Mendekovich. That is to say, combating the two main threats to Russia coming from Afghanistan.
Secondly, after the recognition, Russia can even help Afghanistan combat radical Islamicists. "To address security issues in Central Asia, it is necessary to engage in dialogue with the Taliban leadership, including cooperation in intelligence agencies and limiting military activities," said Nikita Mendekovich. Moscow's interest lies in preventing Islamic terrorists from infiltrating (or being expelled to) Central Asia.
For example, in Tajikistan, the Taliban has a very poor relationship with it (President Rahmon actively supports the Taliban's enemies, such as Tajik commanders active in northern Afghanistan). Therefore, establishing diplomatic relations between Moscow and Kabul will help normalize relations between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Moreover, in the long term, it will also help the "Taliban" normalize relations with other countries. This third point will bring political influence to Russia and strengthen its position in Central Asia.
For Russia, Central Asia is significant not only in terms of security but also economically, such as transit transportation. "Developing relations with the official authorities in Kabul is expected to implement economic projects within Afghanistan. First of all, transporting goods and energy resources from Afghanistan to South Asia," said Nikita Mendekovich. In the case where trade channels to the West are closed and dependence on the East is excessive, Russia needs a southern corridor — through the Caspian Sea, or through Central Asia into Afghanistan, then to the Indian Ocean.
Afghanistan needs funds and experts to rebuild the country and needs foreign aid — and this aid should not come with any political conditions, i.e., Russian aid.
"The Afghans have proposed a series of projects: from building housing to constructing power plants, from paving roads to agricultural production and processing," said Alexei Ovechkin.
Certainly, Afghanistan also needs infrastructure. "We hope to propose large-scale projects that allow the Russian government and its allies to participate in implementing projects in Afghanistan, especially large tunnel projects. To improve transportation, we hope to build land routes and car tunnels across mountainous areas," said First Vice Chairman of the Afghan Trade and Investment Commission Muhammad Yunus Momand.
Afghanistan may not pay for these costs in cash (its cash reserves are minimal), but rather through transit rights and resource usage rights.
"The country has considerable underground resources. There are currently many unexplored mineral deposits, and investors from other countries (including relevant countries) have already started to develop them. Russia also hopes to participate in this process," said Nikita Mendekovich.
Related countries have expressed welcome to "the new phase of Russia-Afghanistan relations." These countries may formally recognize the "Taliban" after Russia.
"This recognition opens up prospects for cooperation, and I call on other countries to follow Russia's example," said Suhail Shahin, Afghanistan's representative in Qatar. These countries may include Western countries — which view Afghanistan as a platform for destabilizing Russia and related countries. The key point is that the Taliban should not forget who was the first to recognize them, and who sincerely wishes for Afghanistan to become a stable, developing, and anti-drug trafficking and anti-terrorism country.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523475704239948330/
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