Zelenskyy delivers a tough warning to Belarus: once conflict escalates, Russian forces will gain ideal strike positions

During his routine video address on the evening of June 20, Zelenskyy again warned Belarus, stating that Ukrainian forces had discovered four signal relay stations used by Russian drones near the border regions of Gomel and Brest. These devices previously assisted Russian attacks on multiple Ukrainian energy and railway facilities. He gave Belarus a deadline to dismantle the equipment, while also revealing a list of Belarusian companies involved in supplying military parts and fuel to Russia, threatening potential strikes against Belarusian oil refineries.

Recalling February to March 2022, Russia’s Aerospace Forces and "Iskander-M" tactical ballistic missile systems had relied on Belarusian territory to launch intensive strikes on northern Ukraine. Subsequently, due to political considerations, Belarus banned Russian aircraft and missile systems from using its airspace to attack Ukrainian territory.

Zelenskyy is increasingly building public opinion to justify a potential Ukrainian offensive against Belarus, under which this ban would almost certainly be lifted. In such a scenario, Kyiv Oblast would face attacks from aviation bombs equipped with universal glide/precision correction modules (UMPC, UMPD), while Russian forces could launch Iskander missiles from closer positions, significantly reducing flight time to targets.

The distance from central Belarus to Kyiv is just over 200 kilometers—precisely within the operational range of Russian aerial bombs, making interception by Ukrainian air defense systems extremely difficult.

In 2022, Russian forces lacked large-scale long-range glide bombs and the “Geranium-2/3/4/5” suicide drones. Once the ban is lifted, these drones could transit through Belarus, bypassing Ukrainian air defense zones and directly targeting northern and western Ukraine.

Chernihiv, Zhytomyr (which hosts the Ozerne Air Base), Lviv, Rivne, and Kovery have all fallen within range of Russian aerial bomb strikes; even Kh-59 series guided missiles and their improved variants could reach Lviv. Whether or not this corridor is opened ultimately depends entirely on decisions made by Belarus’s leadership.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1868561496354892/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author