October 16, 2025, Issue No. 1070
Duty Editor: Mao Yaxin, Aslan
Reviewer: Zhang Qianhe, Guan Yunyi
Executive Editor-in-Chief: Chen Zhuo
The incoming U.S. ambassador to India met with Rajesh Agrawal, the secretary of the Department of Commerce and Industry in India, during his visit to India. Source: Forum Daily.
Bloomberg and Economic Times reported on October 14 that India is accelerating its trade negotiations with the United States, hoping to achieve a phased outcome by the end of November. According to reports, India's overall strategy for trade negotiations includes expanding imports from the United States, relaxing market access, and reducing trade barriers to narrow the trade surplus. India may make concessions in the negotiations, including partially easing restrictions on the import of genetically modified corn and purchasing about $40 billion worth of goods, including defense and energy products. It is reported that most other trade issues between the U.S. and India have already been resolved. Although India's purchase of Russian oil remains a focal point of tension in U.S.-India relations, India is working toward a "mutually acceptable solution" to address this issue. Rajesh Agrawal, secretary of the Department of Commerce and Industry, stated that India has the capacity to import an additional $1.5 billion in oil from the United States. Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade official and founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), said that China's strict control over rare earth exports has forced the U.S. to reconsider its trade strategy towards allies, as the U.S. now needs reliable partners to establish alternative supply chains. The current progress of the negotiations between the U.S. and India indicates that an agreement is likely to be reached soon.
NEWS
Source: Ministry of Commerce website
Reuters reported on October 15 that China has requested consultations with India at the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding India's "electric vehicle and fuel subsidies." China stated that India's measures are suspected to violate multiple obligations, such as national treatment, providing unfair competitive advantages to domestic industries, and damaging China's interests, constituting import substitution subsidies prohibited by the WTO. China said it will take firm measures to effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of domestic industries and urge India to abide by its commitments under the WTO and immediately correct its wrong practices. According to another report by India's New Delhi Television on the same day, Rajesh Agrawal, the secretary of the Department of Commerce and Industry, stated that the Department of Commerce and Industry will review the detailed comments submitted by China. According to WTO regulations, China and India will first conduct consultations on this issue. If no agreement is reached, China can request the establishment of a panel for formal arbitration.
NEWS
Source: Reuters
Reuters reported on October 15 that sources said Apple Inc. is lobbying the Indian government to amend its income tax law to avoid being taxed for holding high-end iPhone production equipment provided to contract manufacturers. Currently, Apple's manufacturing operations are continuously shifting from China to the Indian market. Data shows that although China still accounts for 75% of global iPhone shipments, India's share of global shipments has tripled since 2022, reaching 25%. Foxconn and Tata, Apple's contract manufacturers, have invested billions of dollars in establishing five factories in India and spent millions of dollars on expensive iPhone assembly equipment. Apple purchases machines used to produce iPhones and hands them over to contract manufacturers for use while retaining ownership. In China, this practice does not require taxation. However, according to India's Income Tax Act of 1961, this behavior is considered to have a "business connection," and Apple would need to pay taxes for it. Sources said that Apple executives have been communicating with Indian officials in recent months, hoping to amend the law, as Apple is concerned that the current legislation could hinder future business expansion. However, the Indian government is worried that amending the law could weaken its sovereignty in taxing multinational corporations. Experts said that if Apple does not change its operational practices but fails to persuade the Indian authorities to amend the law, it may face billions of additional taxes in the future.
NEWS
Source: POLITICO
Al Jazeera reported on October 15 that Pakistan and Afghanistan have reached a temporary ceasefire agreement on October 15, planning to ease the stalemate through dialogue. This is the second ceasefire since the border conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan broke out on October 11. Sources revealed that both sides did not publicly acknowledge the first ceasefire, but Saudi Arabia and Qatar both intervened to advance the first ceasefire talks. On October 14, fighting erupted again in the southeastern and northwestern border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, with both sides accusing each other of initiating the conflict. On October 15, Afghanistan declared that, at Pakistan's request and insistence, both sides agreed to an indefinite ceasefire starting at 17:30 local time. Subsequently, the Pakistani Foreign Office stated that the ceasefire was at the request of Afghanistan, and both sides agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire starting at 18:00 local time to resolve the border conflict through constructive dialogue. Analysts warned that if a structured dialogue framework or third-party monitoring mechanism is not successfully advanced, the ceasefire may only be temporary. In response, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif accused Afghanistan of receiving support from India, possibly leaning towards India, making the ceasefire difficult to sustain. Therefore, Pakistan will actively respond to constructive dialogue but has also prepared adequately to deal with any attacks from Afghanistan.
NEWS
Source: Economic Times of India
The Economic Times of India reported on October 15 that India has successfully secured its first order for building liquefied natural gas (LNG)-powered container ships, marking a potential significant shift in the global shipbuilding industry layout. French shipping giant CMA CGM, the world's third-largest container shipping company, signed a letter of intent with Cochin Shipyard in India, planning to invest $300 million to build six small LNG-powered container ships, each capable of carrying 1,700 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). This is the first time a major global shipping company has placed an order for container ships in India. Rodolphe Saade, chairman of CMA CGM, pointed out that China and South Korea are the main countries where CMA CGM's large container ships are built, while India may have the potential to become a reliable "alternative country." Therefore, CMA CGM plans to first promote the construction of small LNG ships in India. In recent years, the Modi government has attached great importance to the development of the shipping industry. Modi himself visited the headquarters of CMA CGM in Marseille, France in February 2025. In September, India launched a shipbuilding support plan worth Rs 69725 crore (approximately $9.4 billion), aiming to narrow the gap between India's shipbuilding industry and the top three shipbuilding powers of China, South Korea, and Japan. Currently, India ranks 16th in global shipbuilding and holds less than 1% of the market share. To this end, India plans to enter the top ten by 2030 and the top five by 2047. This new order may help India achieve industrial upgrading.
NEWS
Ashley Tellis. Source: Outlook India
The New York Times' Outlook India reported on October 15 that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested Ashley Tellis, an Indian-American geopolitical expert, triggering high attention within India. From 2001 to 2009, Tellis worked in the National Security Council under the Bush administration, playing a key role in the negotiation of the Indo-U.S. civilian nuclear agreement, which was a key driver in deepening Indo-U.S. relations. Additionally, Tellis served in the U.S. diplomatic system, acting as a senior advisor at the U.S. Embassy in India. The FBI alleged that Tellis illegally collected, transmitted, and possessed defense classified documents using his position, and that he has recently had multiple contacts with Chinese officials. Given Tellis's repeated public criticism of the Modi government, suggesting that India may not stand firmly on one side in the Sino-U.S. confrontation, BJP officials stated that the case indicates that "anti-India forces" are rapidly disintegrating. However, opposition parties in India accused the U.S. of applying double standards in handling cases like Tellis and Adani Group, indicating the "high level of democratic erosion" between the U.S. and India. Some Indian media also pointed out that this arrest may have political motives, as a retaliation against Tellis's past "anti-Trump statements" by the Trump administration. In addition, Indian scholars called for further investigation into Tellis's diplomatic contacts and potential networks, questioning his involvement in possible espionage activities.
NEWS
On October 2, RSS volunteers participated in the organization's centenary celebration event in Nagpur, India. Source: The Washington Post.
The Washington Post published an article on October 14 titled "Why This Indian Nationalist Group Matters Beyond India." The article argues that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), as the core organization of Hindu nationalism in India, profoundly shapes India's political and social structures through its vast organizational network and identity mobilization. Its significant influence should raise international concerns about the rise of extreme nationalism. The author, Jim Geraghty, is a senior political journalist at The National Review.
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is the core organization of Hindu nationalism in India, leading a "family of alliances" (Sangh Parivar) consisting of over 50 branches. This network covers various functional areas, including religious organizations such as the Vishva Hindu Parishad, the Hindu youth militia Bajrang Dal, farmers' associations, labor unions, lawyers' councils, student unions, and teachers' associations. Among these, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is its political arm, which has been ruling the central government since 2014. Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to surpass Jawaharlal Nehru as the longest-serving prime minister in India. Currently, the BJP holds a majority in both houses of parliament through its coalition and governs in 21 of India's 28 states.
The RSS currently has approximately 5 million male members (the organization does not officially recognize female members, but has women's organizations with similar structures and ideologies). In 1948, after a former RSS member assassinated Gandhi, the Indian government banned the RSS's activities, citing violent acts such as arson, robbery, murder, and illegal weapon stockpiling, with the ban lasting for 18 months. Nehru even compared the RSS's structure to a "Nazi army." Despite the RSS's attempts to project an image of having turned moderate and complying with the law, it is still regarded as a quasi-military organization. Studies indicate that the RSS has never ruled out the use of violence and coercion, and its ideology has long retained the justification for extrajudicial enforcement.
The current head of the RSS, Mohan Bhagwat, stated in an interview that the RSS "proudly identifies with Hindu nationalism," but emphasized that "Hindu" is not a narrow religious belief but a term representing the identity of "Indians." He claimed that the RSS does not seek to amend the Indian Constitution, and its decision-making process is based on consensus, acknowledging that achieving consensus on all issues requires a long time. Bhagwat even argued that Pakistan should be considered a "Hindu nation," citing the shared ancestry between India and Pakistan, and that the current conflict between the two countries stems from the lack of consensus on this perception.
The RSS instills a sense of belonging, community consciousness, and a mission to participate in a "great cause" among its members, conveying the belief that "you are indispensable and your life has lofty significance," which strongly attracts young men, enabling the organization to consistently attract and maintain millions of members over the years.
As nationalist and populist ideologies rise across the Indian subcontinent and globally, the RSS's influence has drawn international attention. If compared to the U.S., the RSS-led organizational system is akin to a collection of political and social organizations, including the Republican Party, a host of evangelical churches, the "Make America Great Again" movement (MAGA movement), the Boy Scouts, the American Federation of Teachers, the AFL-CIO (the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations), the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, and potentially even civil security organizations like the Guardian Angels. Nationalism is a powerful yet volatile force that can easily be directed as a tool for excluding minorities. Therefore, the only effective way to curb the expansion of the RSS and similar organizations is to provide truly responsive, more inclusive, and attractive political and social alternatives.
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562213815799071242/
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