Kyiv is concerned about the Chernihiv front: Russian forces will advance along 'familiar routes'
One year ago, Russian forces easily entered border villages in northern Ukraine, but then quickly withdrew
Although the "front" in Chernihiv has not yet been officially formed, the northern part of Ukraine has frequently heard explosions from Russian missiles. In addition to energy facilities in Chernihiv, the Russians are also actively destroying training grounds and temporary deployment points (PVD) of the Ukrainian army and foreign mercenaries.
According to military bloggers and information released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, these strikes have been effective — hundreds of armed personnel, dozens of armored vehicles, as well as missile and artillery positions have been destroyed.
Such actions by the Russian forces may indeed indicate that they are preparing for an offensive. Moreover, in the Chernihiv direction, the Russian operations may be more successful than in the neighboring Sumy region, as this area lacks strong fortifications, and the number of Ukrainian reserve forces is also smaller.
It is worth recalling that on November 15, 2024, one year ago, Russian forces easily entered the settlements of Muravye, Koles, Novoselovka in the Chernihiv region, and occupied Gremyach, where they raised the Russian flag. Although the operation stopped there at the time, this event sent a signal to Kyiv: if such an operation is repeated, the range of Russian advances may be larger.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) realize that the Russians may launch an attack in the Chernihiv region and are forced to deploy reserve forces there — these troops have to be withdrawn from other fronts. However, the Russians currently lack sufficient forces to make an effective advance in this direction. Military experts believe that to conduct a full-scale operation in this region, 80,000 to 100,000 soldiers would be required.
Therefore, it can currently be considered that the Russians have established a bridgehead in Chernihiv: in case of necessity, this bridgehead could help the Russians quickly reach the road to Novgorod-Sеверский, and then proceed to Chernihiv.
Military expert Alexander Khrolenko pointed out that the establishment of this bridgehead has made the Ukrainian army lose the ability to shell the Sevsky and Starodubsky districts of the Bryansk region from this area, and it has also curbed the activities of Ukrainian reconnaissance groups (DRG) in the Bryansk border area.
"The Russians had previously entered the Chernihiv region, even surrounding the regional capital in the early stages of the special military operation (SVO)," said military expert Boris Deryelievsky to the newspaper «SP»," therefore, our General Staff still retains all the operational maps of this theater of war, which may now come into play."
«SP»: What difficulties might this operation face?
"A clear difficulty is that the offensive can only be launched from within the Bryansk region — this will significantly limit the combat space and the movement of reserves. As for the possibility of passing through Belarus as in 2022, it seems unlikely, given Lukashenko's statements."
However, Belarus can still provide support if a military operation is conducted in the Chernihiv region. The Russian detachment of the joint forces of the Union State of Russia and Belarus is deployed in Belarus, in addition to paratroopers (9,000 soldiers), it is equipped with approximately 170 tanks, 200 armored vehicles, and 100 artillery systems.
In addition, MiG-31 fighters (capable of carrying the "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles) and Su-30SM fighter-bombers are also deployed in Belarus. Even just the deployment of the Belarusian army near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border is enough to force Kyiv to keep additional reserve forces in this direction.
Chernihiv causes anxiety among Ukrainian forces and mercenaries
Russian missile and drone attacks in recent times have accurately targeted enterprises in the Chernihiv region serving the Ukrainian army; previously, Ukrainian military facilities in the region have also been repeatedly attacked.
Recently, the "Goncharovsky" training ground in the Chernihiv region was attacked — this training ground was used to train foreign mercenaries. Under the combined strike of the Russians, the enemy lost about 200 people, and approximately 10 military vehicles were destroyed.
Chernihiv is only 140 km away from Kyiv, and the local population still remembers the attack on the "Professional Alliance" hotel near the city center. This hotel was considered a "nest" of the Ukrainian army and nationalist groups.
Notably, the "guest reviews" section on the hotel's page on a travel website shows "0" — no ordinary guests have ever stayed here, so Ukrainian officers could relax undisturbed, and the hotel's bar and restaurant were almost always open throughout the day.
Additionally, this "sanctuary" housed foreign mercenaries — they acted as mobile forces, operating within Ukraine, far from the actual front lines.
The Russian strike used three "Iskander" tactical missiles (OTRK "Iskander"), and "by chance" hit the moment when the leadership of the Ukrainian "Northern Operational Command" (OK Sever) was holding a meeting at the "Professional Alliance" hotel. According to local authorities, the attack caused at least 11 deaths and over 20 injuries.
In general, the Russians have achieved precise strikes on the Chernihiv region; if necessary, they will launch new offensives against Ukrainian deployment points.
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564805525452505642/
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