Why don't the foreign airlines that "suspended flights to China" return? In the past year or so, more than 30 international airlines, including British Airways, Lufthansa, and Scandinavian Airlines, have announced the closure or reduction of their flights to China.
The global aviation industry is undergoing a silent transformation: more than 30 international airlines, including British Airways, Lufthansa, and Scandinavian Airlines, have announced the reduction or closure of their flights to China. This is not an unexpected event but an inevitable outcome of changes in the market and geopolitical environment. What makes these aviation giants hesitate to return? Is it the high cost of detour flights, or the loss of passengers? Or are there deeper policy barriers? This article will reveal the truth behind this phenomenon and explore it thoroughly.
In recent years, the demand for flights to China from international airlines has significantly declined. After the pandemic, although the global aviation industry gradually recovered, the recovery of the Chinese market was clearly lagging. According to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the passenger volume on China's international routes in 2023 was only about 60% of pre-pandemic levels, far below 80% or more in European and American markets. Behind this, there are both the impact of epidemic prevention policies and the reduction of business travel due to economic slowdown. Airlines that previously relied on the Chinese market, such as Lufthansa, found that their business class demand had greatly decreased, while the recovery of tourist traffic was also hindered by complex visa procedures.
At the same time, the rise in operating costs has further increased the pressure on foreign airlines. Due to geopolitical tensions, flights to China have had to avoid certain airspaces, such as avoiding Russian airspace, leading to extended flight times and increased fuel consumption. For example, British Airways' London to Shanghai route added approximately 2 hours of flight time due to the detour, and fuel costs increased by about 20%. In the thin-profit aviation industry, such cost increases can make the route unprofitable.
Changes in the political environment are another major factor driving the withdrawal of foreign airlines. Sino-foreign relations have been tense in recent years, with some countries imposing stricter travel restrictions on China, which in turn has led to increasingly strict regulations on foreign airlines by China. For example, airlines must comply with China's complex air rights allocation system, and the opacity of the approval process makes it difficult for foreign airlines to plan long-term operations. Additionally, some countries, out of security concerns, have reduced their support for China routes. For example, the U.S. Department of Transportation has repeatedly adjusted the number of routes between the U.S. and China, causing companies like Delta Air Lines to reduce their China operations.
The spillover effects of geopolitical conflicts cannot be ignored either. After the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russia closed its airspace, posing significant challenges for European airlines, while China did not open alternative routes, further increasing operational difficulties. SAS, for example, has publicly stated that flights to China have been put on hold due to "high geopolitical risks." This uncertainty makes airlines prefer to invest resources in more stable markets.
The rise of domestic Chinese airlines has also put pressure on foreign airlines. Airlines such as China National Aviation Corporation (Air China), China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines quickly recovered and expanded their international routes after the pandemic, seizing the market with low-price strategies and frequent flights. Passengers who previously relied on foreign airlines now choose Chinese airline transfer services more often. For example, the Shanghai to London route operated by China Eastern Airlines often has prices more than 30% lower than those of British Airways, and the flight options are more flexible. This competition continues to erode the market share of foreign airlines.
Moreover, the emergence of alternative routes is also diverting passengers. With the rapid development of hubs in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, airlines such as Qatar Airways and Emirates provide more convenient connection services through Doha or Dubai. Compared to direct flights to China, the advantages of direct flights are gradually diminishing. For example, Lufthansa found that routes to Southeast Asia via Frankfurt generate higher profits than direct flights to China, prompting it to shift its strategic focus.
For many international airlines, giving up flights to China is part of a strategic contraction. The pandemic exposed the risks of over-expansion, forcing airlines to re-evaluate the profitability of their global networks. Previously, foreign airlines viewed China as a "potential market," investing heavily in its layout. But now, facing low returns and high risks, airline giants are more inclined to "focus on fine-tuning." British Airways has explicitly stated that it will concentrate its resources on transatlantic routes, as its London to New York route generates much higher revenue than the Asian market.
This trend is also reflected in the data. In 2023, the passenger volume on flights from Europe to North America increased by 25%, while flights to China only increased by 5%. Airline executives generally believe that the appeal of the Chinese market is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels in the short term, so they have chosen to temporarily exit or reduce investment.
Changes in passenger behavior have also influenced the decisions of foreign airlines. After the pandemic, remote meeting technologies have become increasingly mature, partially replacing the demand for business travel. Many multinational companies have reduced the frequency of employees traveling to China, relying instead on video conferencing to address communication needs. Additionally, the preferences of leisure travelers are also changing. Compared to China, which requires complex visas and long flights, they prefer destinations with easier visas and shorter flight times, such as Japan and Southeast Asian countries. This trend has hit foreign airlines that rely on Chinese passengers with a double blow.
The path of the aviation industry is determined by interests. The withdrawal of foreign airlines is not accidental, but the result of the combination of multiple factors such as economy, politics, and the market. In the future, as these variables evolve, this situation may see a turnaround. When do you think foreign airlines will return to the Chinese market? Please share your opinion in the comments section, and let us jointly explore the future direction of this topic.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837799243514954/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.