【Text by Observers Network, Deng Jun; Editor by Zhao Qiankun】

According to foreign media reports such as the U.S. travel industry media Travel Industry Wire and Business Wire, a new report jointly released by Kearney Management Consulting and the Saudi Ministry of Tourism, titled "Travel and Tourism at a Turning Point: Principles for Transformative Growth," shows that by 2034, tourism is expected to contribute $16 trillion (approximately 114.7 trillion Chinese yuan) to global GDP, accounting for more than 11% of the global economy. The report points out that the industry's growth rate is about 1.5 times that of the global economy. If it can effectively address increasingly severe challenges such as climate change, labor shortages, and insufficient infrastructure, it will unlock significant business opportunities.

The report predicts that Asia will become the fastest-growing tourist region globally, with the direct contribution of its tourism industry to GDP expected to exceed 7% by 2034. Notably, China and India are expected to account for more than 25% of the global outbound tourism market by 2030.

Countries such as Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia, through substantial investments in tourism, are also expected to achieve significant growth. This momentum is driving an increase in international tourist numbers, enhanced activity in tourism business, and expanded global recognition.

In terms of specific areas, sports tourism (expected to reach $1.7 trillion, approximately 12.19 trillion Chinese yuan, by 2032) and ecotourism (with a compound annual growth rate of 14%) are reshaping the industry landscape. The global tourism technology market is expected to reach $10.5 billion (approximately 752.7 billion Chinese yuan) in 2024, nearly doubling by 2033.

The report emphasizes that to support the industry's prosperity, there is a need to significantly expand relevant facilities—estimated to require the construction of 7 million hotel rooms, an increase of 15 million flights annually, and investment in infrastructure capable of supporting 3 billion global trips.

The international travel media "Travel & Tourism World" cited an analysis by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), stating that sustainable tourism will become an even more important priority in the next decade.

WTTC forecasts that by 2035, tourism will contribute approximately $16.5 trillion (approximately 118.28 trillion Chinese yuan) to the global economy, accounting for 11.5% of global GDP; from now until 2035, the industry's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to be 3.5%, higher than the expected 2.5% growth rate of the global economy; by 2035, the tourism industry will create about 460 million jobs, accounting for nearly one-ninth (about 11.1%) of the global workforce; international tourism spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.4% to reach $2.9 trillion (approximately 20.79 trillion Chinese yuan); domestic tourism spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 3.3% to reach $7.7 trillion (approximately 55.2 trillion Chinese yuan).

WTTC believes this optimistic outlook stems from the continuous growth in demand for travel experiences among international tourists and increased global investment in tourism infrastructure. With the development of emerging markets such as Africa and Asia-Pacific, global tourism is expected to set new records in the coming years.

However, the future development is not smooth.

Business Wire reported that the report also warns of major risks. For example, tourism currently accounts for 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and without effective intervention, this proportion may rise to 15% by 2034. Tourists generate an estimated 205 million tons of waste annually, accounting for 7% of global solid waste. Labor shortages are also becoming increasingly apparent: the staff turnover rate in the UK's tourism industry reached as high as 53% between 2022 and 2023; despite a wage increase 16 percentage points higher than the inflation rate, the U.S. hotel industry still faces hiring difficulties. The report warns that if decisive and coordinated actions are not taken, the industry could face revenue losses of up to $6 trillion (approximately 43.01 trillion Chinese yuan) by 2030 due to future turbulence, missing the potential to become an engine of resilience, inclusiveness, and regenerative development.

Travel Industry Wire reported that Saudi Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al Khateeb stated that Saudi Arabia is heavily investing in regenerative tourism destinations, forward-looking infrastructure, and talent development—aiming not only to welcome 150 million tourists by 2030 but also to help shape and support the future of global tourism.

Børge Brende, President and CEO of the World Economic Forum, called for a bold reimagining of the systems supporting tourism based on collaboration among multiple stakeholders. From coordinating sustainable fuel standards to empowering local communities to participate in tourism planning, rules must be redesigned to create an industry that benefits both people and the planet.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7527586411508138531/

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