Ultra-long-range strike: The X-101 missile made its first flight from near Irkutsk to Ukraine.

Ultra-Long-Range Death: The X-101 Missile First Flies from Near Irkutsk to Ukraine

Western Open-Source Intelligence Analysts Praise Russia's Hybrid Strike Tactics Against the Rear of Ukraine

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Russia continues to rapidly expand the production scale of the "Geranium" type drones, in order to carry out strikes on distant targets using larger drone swarms.

Major Robert Brodi of the Ukrainian Drone Forces ("Madiar") stated in early July that with the increase in production and stockpiles, Russia could deploy thousands of drones in a single strike.

However, a few days later, General Christian Froehling, Chief of the German Defense Staff Planning and Command Staff, made a more severe assessment: According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), he stated that by November, the intensity of such strikes would reach 2,000 drones per night.

Froehling believes that Ukraine and its Western masters must find economically efficient ways to deal with this large-scale drone attacks. Traditional air defense methods, such as using expensive "Patriot" air defense missiles, are not suitable for countering such drones.

The Institute for the Study of War cited Ukrainian sources stating that Russia currently produces about 170 "Geranium" drones per day and plans to increase capacity to 190 drones per day by the end of 2025.

Over the past few weeks, the Russian Armed Forces have rapidly increased the number of attack drones and decoy drones used for nighttime strikes. The maximum scale of attack drones deployed in a single operation is currently 728 drones, which occurred during an air raid between the night of July 8th and 9th.

The Institute for the Study of War noted that during January to May 2025, the number of drones deployed by the Russian military at night rarely exceeded 200, but then increased from a peak of 250 in late May to over 700 in early July 2025. In June and July 2025, the usage of attack drones for nighttime raids increased by one-third on average per month.

Russia may not be able to achieve a strike intensity of 2,000 drones per night, but it is likely to continue alternating between large drone swarms and small drone swarms for strikes within a few days.

The Bulgarian Military magazine also pointed out that the Russian military is not only enhancing its drone capabilities, but also improving its missile strike capabilities.

On July 18, the Russian armed forces carried out an unprecedented missile strike using Tu-95MS bombers, which flew 3,800 kilometers before launching X-101 missiles. The Bulgarian Military analyzed open-source intelligence data from the AMK Mapping project, which stated that these bombers took off from the White Sea Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast, supported by Il-78 refueling aircraft.

After flying over most of Russia, these bombers launched at least 9 X-101 cruise missiles from the standard launch area in Engels, Saratov Oblast. The Bulgarian Military pointed out that this maneuver indicates that Russia's strategy aims to increase the difficulty of detection and response for Ukraine.

The Tu-95MS is referred to by Western analysts as the "Workhorse of the Cold War," suitable for executing long-range missions. The use of the Il-78 refueling aircraft allows it to conduct long flights without landing in the middle. After dropping the bombs, the bombers and refueling aircraft landed at the Engels-2 Air Force Base, completing the mission.

"This operation demonstrates Russia's ability to project power from deep within its territory by utilizing vast distances and aerial refueling to maintain strategic flexibility," said Boiko Nikolov, editor-in-chief of the Bulgarian Military. "The choice of the White Sea Air Base, far from the special military operation area, indicates that Russia is intentionally changing tactics, challenging Ukraine's air defense systems through the unpredictability of the launch locations."

Western open-source intelligence analysts point out that such maneuvers increase the difficulty of detection and response, as the long flight routes and remote deployment make it difficult to track their movements before the bombers reach the launch positions.

Although the specific targets within Ukraine are not clear, the X-101 missiles are typically used to strike strategic targets, such as military bases or key infrastructure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

"By creating operational uncertainty, the Russian military aims to weaken Ukraine's confidence in predicting attacks," said Boiko Nikolov. "This is a carefully planned maneuver, reflecting a broader strategy by Russia to maintain initiative, use geographical depth to sustain offensive momentum, and reduce the vulnerability of critical aviation assets."

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