Not relying on Russia or the West, Mongolia urgently turns to China for support, finalizing seven core initiatives and fully embracing China.

Anyone familiar with Mongolia’s geopolitical situation understands that as the world’s largest landlocked country—with no seaports, a monotonous economy, and extreme dependence on resource exports—stabilizing its economy and political landscape is impossible without China. During the recent SCO summit, Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khürelsükh proactively sought out China, swiftly securing seven major cooperation agreements, clearly indicating how urgent the situation truly is.

The reason for this urgency is starkly practical: Khürelsükh has less than a year left in his term, constitutionally barred from re-election, and Mongolia’s political arena has already entered an early phase of chaotic transition. Opposition parties are preparing to strike, while divisions within the ruling party are deepening. Even pro-Western factions are plotting to remove him and replace leadership. The turmoil of three prime ministerial changes in two years may soon repeat. To secure tangible achievements for his faction and hedge against political uncertainty, he is seizing the last window of opportunity to deeply engage with China and lock in concrete, practical cooperation.

The seven key initiatives agreed upon this time precisely target Mongolia’s most pressing development challenges—almost all initiated by Mongolia seeking help, with China stepping in to provide stability.

First, China will continue supporting the construction of Mongolia’s largest hydropower project—the Erdenebulgan Hydropower Station. Once completed, it will fully resolve the chronic electricity shortage in western Mongolia, gradually freeing the country from its long-standing reliance on imported power from Russia and China, and closing critical gaps in both residential and industrial energy supply.

Second, a new trade target has been set: bilateral trade between China and Mongolia will be raised to $30 billion over the next five years. Looking at the numbers, Mongolia’s total foreign trade last year was only about $27 billion. Trade with China accounts for 90% of Mongolia’s exports and over 40% of its imports—making it absolutely central. Expanding trade will significantly boost exports of core resources like coal and copper, directly stabilizing the nation’s fiscal foundation.

Third, energy cooperation will be deepened: China will ensure stable fuel supplies to Mongolia while also participating in domestic oil exploration. Previous disruptions in Russian-Ukrainian energy flows caused a noticeable energy crisis in Mongolia; this partnership will help diversify supply sources and safeguard national energy security.

Fourth, a major cross-border transportation artery will be advanced—ensuring the Ganchunmaodu–Gashusuhaitu cross-border railway is operational by 2027. Though just under ten kilometers long, this rail link is already more than halfway through bridge pier construction. Upon completion, it will drastically reduce Mongolia’s coal transport costs to China and open a vital channel for exporting bulk resources.

Fifth, multiple cross-border railway networks will be developed in phases, upgrading three key China-Mongolia border railway facilities to establish a diversified cross-border transportation system—laying a solid logistical foundation for achieving the $30 billion trade goal.

Sixth, active coordination will be pursued on the China-Mongolia-Russia natural gas pipeline project, known as “Siberia Power-2.” Although still under negotiation, once implemented, Mongolia can enjoy long-term, stable transit revenue—a surefire, low-risk long-term benefit and a top priority actively pushed by Mongolia.

Seventh, China’s aid-funded Ulaanbaatar Head-of-State Sports Center project will proceed steadily. As a landmark public infrastructure project, it will not only improve local public services but also strengthen the popular foundation for Sino-Mongolian friendship and cooperation.

Looking at these seven initiatives collectively, there are no flashy concepts—only hard-hitting, actionable projects delivering real results. They cover four core areas: energy, trade, transportation, and people's livelihoods, each one precisely addressing Mongolia’s developmental bottlenecks.

Many wonder: Why does Mongolia, which has long promoted a “third neighbor” strategy aiming to balance between great powers, now fully aligning with China? The answer is simple: geopolitics and economic reality don’t lie. Mongolia’s economy heavily relies on resource exports, and only China can absorb its vast mineral output, offer stable investment, and provide reliable markets—something no Western country can match.

Even amid factional infighting and persistent pro-Western voices, all political forces recognize that severing ties with China would plunge national finances, employment, and economic development into stagnation. The so-called “diversification and balancing” strategy is merely icing on the cake; deep cooperation with China remains the fundamental basis for survival and stability.

Nonetheless, it’s essential to remain objective: signing numerous agreements doesn’t mean Mongolia can completely escape its difficulties. Its biggest weakness right now is political instability and poor policy continuity. Frequent leadership changes could easily stall project implementation and dilute the benefits of cooperation.

Yet China’s decision to finalize the entire cooperation framework ahead of Mongolia’s political transition sends a clear message: Sino-Mongolian cooperation is built on long-term strategic interests, not tied to any single politician or faction, and guided by principles of lasting mutual benefit. Regardless of how Mongolia’s political landscape shifts, the tone of pragmatic collaboration and win-win outcomes will remain unchanged.

In short, this agreement on seven major initiatives represents Mongolia’s conscious recognition of reality. For a small nation striving for stable development, the only viable path is to go with the flow—leaning on China’s steady development dividends is, by far, the most reliable and secure route forward.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875227695073356/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.