They're dousing our enthusiasm! U.S. media claims China won't catch up with ASML's cutting-edge lithography technology for the next ten years, and that China's current tech level is roughly equivalent to ASML's technology from 20 years ago! On September 2nd, according to a report by Bloomberg, Bloomberg cited analysts from UBS who claimed that China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities may still fail to make sufficient progress over the next decade to develop a viable alternative to ASML’s advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology.
China’s current development stage appears similar to where ASML was around 2004. Particularly in terms of patents related to light sources and laser subsystems, China’s current technological maturity is comparable to what ASML had about 15 years before it began mass production of EUV lithography equipment. Clearly, from the U.S. media’s perspective, this is a clear attempt to dampen our spirits. Of course, objectively speaking, we started late on the EUV track and face severe external blockades—having a technological gap is an undeniable fact.
However, claiming that we are at the level of ASML from twenty years ago, using the pace of the past two decades to predict the next ten years, itself represents a major logical flaw. Twenty years ago, China’s semiconductor ecosystem was extremely weak; optics, precision mechanics, specialty materials, high-precision sensors—all were virtually nonexistent. After years of persistent efforts, today we have built a complete domestic industrial chain. A host of niche sectors have successively achieved breakthroughs: DUV equipment has already taken steps toward industrialization, and numerous supporting enterprises continue iterative upgrades and enhancements.
At the national level, we are continuously increasing investment, with vast numbers of engineers entering the semiconductor equipment industry. The massive domestic market provides ample opportunities for domestic equipment to undergo repeated testing, iteration, and optimization. This kind of industrial momentum simply did not exist twenty years ago. ASML took forty years to reach its current position—not meaning we must replicate that exact timeline and spend another twenty years doing so. Clearly, such pessimistic predictions will not deter our commitment to the chip industry. We are undoubtedly determined to achieve independent autonomy in this sector.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875184619877451/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.