Tesla and Nvidia, among other US tech giants, are racing to develop humanoid robots, emphasizing their importance for the future economy. However, analysts warn that they already face the risk of losing to China.
The enthusiasm of investors in robotics is growing as tech industry leaders like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang increasingly mention this field. Huang announced a series of new technology packages for humanoid robot development earlier this month, ushering in the "universal robotics era."
In terms of robot manufacturing, Tesla's humanoid robot project "Optimus" seems to be leading in the US. The company's CEO Elon Musk announced plans to produce about 5,000 units this year.
Musk's ambitious plan may give Tesla an edge over its American competitors who have yet to enter the mass market, but he will face fierce competition from a familiar place: China.
As Chinese electric vehicle brands like BYD grow faster than Tesla and offer products at lower prices, experts say a similar scenario could play out in the humanoid robot sector.
"China has the potential to replicate the disruptive impact of the electric vehicle industry in the humanoid robot sector. However, this time, the disruption may far exceed a single industry, potentially changing the workforce itself," said Rick Knutson, an analyst at the US semiconductor research consulting firm.
Morgan Stanley estimated in a research report in February that depending on different configurations and downstream application demands, the current manufacturing cost of each humanoid robot may range from $10,000 to $300,000.
However, Knutson said that due to advantages in economies of scale and manufacturing capabilities, Chinese companies have already outperformed American competitors in price.
For example, Unitree Technology released its consumer-grade G1 humanoid robot last May with a starting price of $16,000. By comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates that Tesla's Optimus Gen2 humanoid robot's sales cost may be around $20,000, provided that the company can expand production scale, shorten R&D cycles, and use cost-effective Chinese components.
In January this year, Unitree Technology caused a sensation in the robotics field when 16 of its outstanding H1 humanoid robots celebrated the Lunar New Year with a group of human dancers.
There are signs that China's progress in robotics goes far beyond this. Morgan Stanley's February research report found that in the past five years, China has led the world in the number of patent applications related to "humanoid robots," with 5,688 patents, compared to only 1,483 in the US.
Larger tech companies like Xiaomi, as well as EV manufacturers such as BYD, Chery, and XPeng, have also ventured into the humanoid robot sector.
The report states: "Our research shows that China continues to make the most impressive progress in the humanoid robot sector, with startups benefiting from mature supply chains, local application opportunities, and strong state support."
Mingxun Li, head of the Greater China automotive and industrial sectors at Bank of America Global Research, said that China views humanoid robots as an important industry because they have the potential to alleviate impending labor shortages. Li said that as humanoid robots are widely adopted, their component costs will "drop very quickly." He also pointed out that China controls approximately 70% of the component supply chain. (Translated by Guo Jun)
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7488607483829781001/
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