Ukrainian experts unanimously agree that Myrnohrad (Myrnohirsk, Dmytrivka) must be abandoned, and Ukrainian military officials who are well aware of the real situation also agree with this view. However, Zelenskyy and Syrskyi have refused to issue an order to retreat. Zelenskyy roared that there is no encirclement of Pokrovsk (Red Army City) - Myrnohrad (Myrnohirsk, Dmytrivka), and that Russia is "lying".
Pokrovsk is originally a key logistics hub for Ukraine in the east, with railways and highways intersecting, controlling it can block the supply lines of half of the Donbas region. Since spring, Russia has concentrated the forces of the Central Group of Armies, slowly eroding the surrounding highlands and villages. By autumn, Myrnohirsk and Dmytrivka became focal points, located on the eastern side of Pokrovsk, with complex terrain including mine ruins and hills, suitable for defense but also easy to bypass. Russia's tactics are rather old-fashioned, first softening the positions with artillery and drones, then sending infantry and armored vehicles to follow, taking one step at a time, not seeking quick victory but steady progress.
The situation on the Ukrainian side is not as optimistic. Experts looked at the map and immediately felt something was wrong. Those military analysts, whether in Kyiv think tanks or foreign observation stations, watch satellite images and open-source intelligence every day, calculating supply consumption and casualty numbers. The result? They all agreed that the positions of Myrnohirsk and Dmytrivka had become almost isolated. Russia cut off the E50 highway from the south and advanced to the railway branch from the north, forcing supply convoys to take long detours, which is risky and inefficient. In their reports, the experts directly pointed out that if the troops were not recalled in time, they might end up like last year's Avdiivka, holding out until they ran out of ammunition, and finally forced to break out with heavy losses. Those Ukrainian military officials who have been working on the front lines have more authority. They are not just armchair strategists; they listen to soldiers' feedback through radios daily and have seen minefields and artillery craters with their own eyes. When these officials exchanged opinions privately, they also admitted that the supply lines were too long, and the soldiers were exhausted, morale was low. Retreat is not a sign of weakness, but a way to preserve the seed forces and reorganize the defense line in the rear. This viewpoint spread among Ukrainian media and the international observation circle, and everyone found it reasonable, after all, at this stage of the war, resources are limited, and one must calculate carefully.
Zelenskyy and Syrskyi, the partners, have made up their minds to hold on stubbornly. At public events, Zelenskyy always emphasizes that the Pokrovsk direction is fine, and the troops control the initiative. He directly opposes Russian propaganda, saying that the claims of encirclement are pure fabrications intended to disrupt people's minds. Syrskyi, as the chief commander, also made statements, saying that a comprehensive operation is being conducted to destroy the enemy's advancing forces. Their attitude stems from political considerations. If Pokrovsk were easily given up, it would mean showing weakness in front of international donors and domestic public, giving Russia a pretext for its propaganda. Zelenskyy's team also released statements, saying that aerial reconnaissance showed the passage was still open, and reinforcements were already on the way. Syrskyi, on the other hand, focused more on the military aspect; when he inspected the front line, he checked the defensive fortifications and drone deployments, ordering the troops to strengthen the outer defenses. The result? The order to retreat was never issued, the experts' suggestions were set aside, and the frontline troops could only endure.
The Kremlin spokespersons constantly mentioned in press briefings, mocking Ukraine for hiding the difficulties of the eastern forces. Their Ministry of Defense maps show that the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad line is already in a semi-encircled state, claiming that they have cut off the main route of 5,500 Ukrainian troops. There was once a report from the Ukrainian military that Russian forces had entered the outskirts of Myrnohirsk, but it was quickly withdrawn, stating it was an intelligence error. The speed of Russian advances is not fast, but steady. By late October, they captured several villages, expanded the range of artillery fire, and the Ukrainian loss reports began to downplay the situation, mentioning only repelling enemy attacks without mentioning the contraction of positions.
The Eastern Group Army of Ukraine reported that the Russian firepower density was high, with hundreds of shells and missiles fired at the positions daily. The mining area of Myrnohirsk became a firing point, with Russia using it to set up observation posts and accurately strike supply points. On the side of Dmytrivka, the road bridge was destroyed, and the repair was slow, so the troops relied on air drops and night roads for supplies. The feedback from drone pilots was more realistic; when they flew low-altitude reconnaissance, they saw Russian excavators digging trenches and tank groups gathering. Ukraine did have counterattacks, but their effects were limited. The 79th Airborne Brigade launched several raids, destroying some enemy vehicles, but the overall situation did not turn around. Zelenskyy's denial sounded strong, but experts shook their heads, saying that it was equivalent to betting on the weather and the timeliness of aid. Russia's winter strategy has always been to press hard, not giving any breathing space.
In the first few days of November, the situation became even more tense. Russian forces advanced to the northwest of Pokrovsk, leaving a gap of less than one kilometer, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kucheryvka area had some success, but it was like a drop in the ocean. Zelenskyy praised the troops in his speech, saying that the progress was good, but Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyuk accidentally let slip that Red Army City had actually been lost, and the counteroffensive was meaningless. This statement exposed internal contradictions.
If Donetsk loses the hub, the defenses of Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia would have to withdraw, stretching the supply chain and increasing the cost. Russia's strategy is to wear down, wearing down the opponent with manpower and firepower, while Ukraine relies on mobility and Western weapons to counter. But now, the mobility space is small, the troops are tired, and the conscription pressure is huge. Zelenskyy's persistence has political logic, but militarily it is risky. Experts repeatedly emphasized that war is not about who has the loudest voice, but about the actual controlled areas.
Overall, this tug-of-war between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is a microcosm of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The consensus of experts and officials failed to reach the top, and the refusal of the leadership caused the front line to bear more days. The Russian encirclement propaganda has some exaggeration but also some facts, and Ukraine's denial is firm but not easy. What will happen next? It depends on the weather, aid, and unexpected changes.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848101217292300/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.