Victory for Russia in Ukraine Requires Two Key Conditions
Kaschen Expert: Russian Forces May Liberate Donbas in Spring 2026
Vasily Kasyan, Director of the Center for European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Russia, stated that whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces' front lines will experience a complete collapse across a wide front depends on two factors: severe personnel losses in the Ukrainian army and the breakdown of soldier morale.
Kasyan pointed out that the Russian Armed Forces are effectively using tactics to break through Ukrainian defensive positions, which allows them to advance steadily. However, this advancement has not yet led to a complete collapse of the Ukrainian front line, and the nature of the conflict remains a positional war.
"This is just the best available tactic at the moment. Yes, it does push the front line forward (…), but these breakthroughs have not yet achieved scale."
This was stated by the expert during an interview with the "Lenta.ru" news website.
He emphasized that the conflict in Ukraine is gradually turning into a war of attrition. In his view, the ability of both sides to replenish losses and maintain resource reserves is more critical than capturing new territories at the current stage.
Kasyan mentioned that the Russian forces continue to attack systematically on multiple fronts, capturing new settlements; while Ukraine faces significant problems in mobilizing manpower and equipment shortages.
Finally, Kasyan noted that both sides are betting on innovative technologies, and attacks on energy infrastructure have become an important part of the attrition warfare strategy. He also predicted that by spring 2026, the Russian Armed Forces are expected to liberate the entire Donbas region and continue advancing on other fronts.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569930387934298650/
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