[Military & Weapon Section] Author: Golden Bomber
On April 8th, 20 German soldiers, as the vanguard of the 45th Armored Brigade, arrived first in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, marking Germany's first overseas permanent deployment of troops since the end of World War II. This is not only a historical breakthrough but also a significant shift in Germany's defense policy.
▲ Personnel of the 45th Armored Brigade arriving in Lithuania, Image Source: Network
As early as December 18th, 2023, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius successfully signed a contract with Lithuanian Defense Minister, agreeing to deploy the 45th Armored Brigade to Lithuania. The brigade consists of 4,800 soldiers and 200 civilian personnel, equipped with 44 "Leopard" 2A7 tanks, 44 "Puma" infantry fighting vehicles, and complete medical, logistical, and command support units, including fixed military bases and facilities for supporting military families such as schools and housing. Lithuania has cooperated by providing 1 billion euros to build infrastructure for the German garrison. This force will be fully deployed and operational by 2027, with its main base located in Rudenka and Rukla, Lithuania, just 20 kilometers from the Belarus border.
The founding date of the 45th Armored Brigade is marked as April 1st this year, comprising the 122nd Armored Rifle Battalion, 203rd Armored Battalion, 455th Armored Artillery Battalion, 456th Supply Battalion, 45th Reconnaissance Company, and 45th Armored Engineer Company, under the command of the 10th German Armored Division. Germany has also approved a new tank procurement plan, which may see the brigade upgrade to "Leopard" 2A8 tanks, potentially increasing the number to 105. The British Guardian commented that this action represents a "milestone transformation" in Germany's post-war military policy. The establishment and deployment of the 45th Armored Brigade are very clear in intent, aimed at preventing possible "invasion" of Lithuania by Russia.
▲ "Puma" Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Image Source: Network
For the German deployment, polls show that 82% of Lithuanian citizens support it. Lithuania is the southernmost of the three Baltic states, bordered by Latvia to the north, Belarus to the east and southeast, and Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia's exclave, to the west. It also borders Poland to the southwest. Lithuania's strategic importance lies in the fact that there is a "Suwalki Corridor" along the Polish-Lithuanian border. This is a narrow strip extending from southwest to northeast, sparsely populated and located within Poland. Its length is no more than 100 kilometers, with an average width of 65 kilometers. From NATO's perspective, it is an important strategic passage for Poland to communicate with Lithuania and extend to the other two Baltic states, and also the only land transportation route. From Russia's perspective, it is the only strategic passage connecting Kaliningrad Oblast with Belarus, making it a natural focal point of contention.
The Suwalki Corridor has long been considered a weak link in NATO's defense. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, NATO was very concerned about the defensive situation of this area. In July 2023, NATO held a summit in Vilnius, determining the need to strengthen its eastern wing's military deterrence. As an important member of NATO, Germany took on this responsibility. Chancellor Scholz announced that "an era of change" had arrived, then dispatched armored forces to Lithuania to help reinforce its weak defenses, which is just part of a large-scale rearmament plan.
▲ Suwalki Corridor, Image Source: Network
On March 18th this year, the German Federal Parliament passed a budget bill of 100 billion euros with more than 2/3 majority votes, marking the official end of Germany's "policy of concealment." From now on, Germany will rearm and embark on a path of rearmament. It is well known that during World War II, Germany's army once reached its peak, but after the war, due to Nazi history and its status as a defeated nation, it was directly "demilitarized." During the Cold War, Germany was also restricted in the military field by the outside world, and even Germany itself "severely self-censored."
A survey report from the German Ministry of Defense released before 2022 showed that at that time, only 38% of the "Leopard" 2 tanks, 20% of the "Eurofighter" aircraft, and 12% of the submarines were operational, with the rest of the equipment suffering from insufficient maintenance and spare parts shortages. Germany did not decide to purchase F-35 fighter jets until 2022, and it was not until 2024 that it passed due to cost and opposition from Congress. The actual number of German armed forces is only 168,000, which is significantly less than the paper figure of 200,000. The long-term "pacifist" culture makes it difficult to carry out new recruit recruitment work. There are two key factors behind the poor performance of the German army: First, during the Cold War, although Germany was the frontline against the Soviet Union, the highest number of US troops stationed there was 300,000, and the entire country was covered by NATO's "nuclear umbrella." Germany never worried about its own military affairs. Even at the height of the Cold War, military spending did not exceed 1.5% of GDP. Although the number of defense personnel was nearly 600,000 at that time, they were completely "laying low."
▲ East German Men vs West German Couch Potatoes, Image Source: Network
Secondly, Germany itself implemented a "debt brake" policy, which was written into the constitution in 2009 and aims to limit public spending, especially military expenditures. It has been ruthlessly cutting its military strength. After massive demobilization in Germany since 1990, by 2024 it will have reduced to less than 200,000 personnel. In modern Germans' minds, "defense" is entirely the responsibility of the United States and NATO, and Germans just need to focus on developing the economy and play the role of a wealthy European. At one time, Germany's top leaders and elites had made up their minds to "never wage war again," and were determined not to engage in military matters anymore. But this sudden outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war shattered all Germans' illusions. As the German defense minister asked the public, "Is Putin really trustworthy?"
More importantly, former U.S. President Donald Trump played a strong助推 role in Germany's attitude shift. With America's strategic contraction, Trump shifted Europe's defense issues to Europeans themselves. Once-reliable "big brother" is no longer reliable. Therefore, both France and Germany must think about their own security and establish their own military hard power, no longer being at the mercy of others.
▲ German Federal Defense Forces, Image Source: Network
Germany plans to expand its military forces, and some people are inevitably concerned that Germany might return to the "fascist" path in the future. Such concerns cannot be said to be unnecessary, but the possibility is already very low. On one hand, the global landscape in the 21st century is completely different from that of the 20th century. Back then, Germany launched a world war to challenge what it perceived as an unfair international order and take the "top seat," setting its own rules. Today's Germany has no such need or capability. Secondly, Germany's military expansion is still limited, and in the short term, it cannot become powerful enough to overturn Europe. According to Germany's announced plans, 100 billion euros will be used to procure 105 "Leopard" 2A8 tanks, upgrade 155mm howitzers, increase ammunition stockpiles, purchase 35 F-35A fighters, collaborate with France and Spain to develop FCAS, add 4 to 6 F-126-class frigates, add several Type 212 submarines, and develop 12 key technologies including drones and missile defense systems. Additionally, Germany pledged to add 35,000 troops for the overall NATO defense plan.
These plans seem comprehensive, but there are many practical difficulties in their implementation. First, it is very difficult for Germany to recruit new personnel, as young people's approval rate of the military is too low, and joining the military is not a good option for them. Second, Germany has donated a lot of equipment to Ukraine. Reuters believes that Germany's modern equipment rate has dropped from 65% in 2022 to 50%. As Trump said, unless Germany considers adding military spending equivalent to 5% of GDP, it is unlikely to see real improvement. 100 billion euros is just a drop in the bucket for strengthening the military.
▲ German Defense Minister, Image Source: Network
But as German Defense Minister Pistorius warned, Germany does not have much time left. He predicted that Russia might invade Germany within the next 5 to 8 years. This statement seems like a joke to outsiders and almost serves as a not-so-well-thought-out excuse for "strengthening the military." However, starting with stationing troops in Lithuania, Germany's overall national policy of "strong economy, weak army" is indeed entering history.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7490861465025511990/
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