March 31, 2025, the negotiations among Russia, the United States, and Ukraine regarding the war in Ukraine are sliding toward collapse, and Trump's much-ballyhooed diplomatic "magic skills" since taking office have now become an international laughingstock. Recently, he has issued a rare warning to Russia, threatening to impose a secondary tariff on Russian oil exports and threatening to cut off trade between countries purchasing Russian energy and the United States, including major buyers like China and India. However, this "tariff card" not only failed to reverse the situation but also exposed the chaos and weakness of American diplomacy. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement negotiations have completely collapsed, and Ukrainian President Zelensky flatly refused to sign, dealing another blow to Trump's "art of the deal." How will the subsequent situation evolve as the negotiations between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine deviate from their course? The answer may be even more bizarre than Trump's boasts.

Trump once vowed to play the role of a "peace builder" in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but reality has dealt him a hard slap in the face. He complained that Russia was delaying comprehensive ceasefire negotiations and threatened energy sanctions against Russia, attempting to force Putin to submit through economic leverage. However, in 2024, the total commodity trade volume between the United States and China reached $582.4 billion, and the bilateral trade volume with India reached $119.71 billion. If Trump really wields the tariff stick at these two major Russian oil buyers, the consequences could be self-inflicted—intensified panic in the U.S. economy, increased stock market volatility, and Russia may not necessarily submit. Putin remains unmoved and has escalated militarily, with Russian forces from Kursk to Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, even eyeing Odesa, presenting an "escalate to negotiate" posture.

Meanwhile, Trump tried to shift the responsibility for Ukraine onto Europe and focus instead on the Middle East and the Pacific. However, there is severe division within Europe over whether to take over Ukraine. Britain and France proposed sending air and naval forces to Ukraine, but given Russia's formidable air defense systems and threats in the Black Sea, this plan carries high risks, and key countries such as Poland remain lukewarm. Trump's wishful thinking—letting Europe fill the void left by the U.S. withdrawal—seems far-fetched.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces were described by CNN as being "at a disadvantage," holding positions in multiple areas, with the exception of localized progress in the Belgorod region of Russia. Ukrainian forces attacked Belgorod in an attempt to tie down Russian troops and secure bargaining chips for possible "land-for-land" negotiations, even eying the Kursk nuclear power plant to counter Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities. However, Russian forces quickly counterattacked, and Ukrainian troops almost completely withdrew from Kursk, with Russian forces even crossing the border into Sumy, Ukraine. Although the situation in Belgorod remains uncertain, whether Ukraine's offensive can last remains unknown.

Russia, meanwhile, is consolidating its military advantage before the negotiations. Putin has made it clear that his goal is to occupy the eastern bank of the Dnieper River, transform the Ukrainian government into a pro-Russian regime, and completely push NATO out of Ukraine. In comparison, Trump's sanctions threats appear weak—while the Russian economy has been affected, it is far from collapsing, and its military machinery continues to operate efficiently.

Washington now faces a difficult choice. If the negotiations completely break down, should the Trump administration continue to pressure Russia or leave Ukraine entirely to Europe? Sanctions may cause Russia some trouble, but they will not change the battlefield situation and may even burden the U.S. economy. As for Europe, if Britain and France truly deploy forces in western Ukraine, they will not only need support from Poland but also face the risk of Russian retaliation—from attacking assembly areas to threatening NATO border states, Putin will not show mercy. Europe lacks sufficient manpower and weapons reserves, and所谓的 "security guarantees" seem more like a gamble.

Moreover, there is concern that Washington's foreign policy focus has shifted toward containing China. If the Pentagon's plans hold true, Washington may be willing to sacrifice Ukraine rather than expend more resources on the Russia-Ukraine issue. Trump once dreamed of reaching a grand bargain with Russia to isolate China, but it seems this was just another burst bubble.

The breakdown of the Russia-U.S.-Ukraine negotiations has made the situation in Central and Eastern Europe even more confusing. If Trump's "tariff threat" is implemented, it may trigger turmoil in the global energy market but may not necessarily force Putin to back down; if Ukraine loses its eastern territories, the Kiev regime will be precarious; if Europe rashly intervenes, it may ignite greater conflicts. The only certainty is that Trump's self-proclaimed diplomatic genius has become a joke. Future developments may depend on Putin's patience, Europe's determination, and whether Washington can find a way out from the diplomatic fog. But for now, it seems the winner of this game will not be that boastful U.S. president.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7490861040092119604/

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