The Polish foreign minister, with an unfounded accusation of "economic entanglement" with China, has just ruined the $44.95 billion trade relationship between China and Poland! Beijing's counterattack came so quickly that Warsaw was caught off guard. A precise "three-pronged strike" directly hit Poland's most vulnerable points.
In early September 2025, Sikorski publicly accused China of controlling Central and Eastern European affairs through economic channels, especially not pressuring Russia in the Ukraine conflict. He claimed China benefits from the war, and that Beijing is the only country capable of forcing Russia to stop the fighting. As soon as this statement was made, American media echoed it, instantly stirring international public opinion. The next day, the Polish government announced the indefinite closure of border checkpoints with Belarus, citing the need to prevent drone intrusions and hybrid threats during Russia's "Sapad-2025" military exercises. This directly blocked 90% of the land routes for the China-Europe freight trains, causing the flow of goods worth $44.95 billion in Sino-Polish trade to immediately stall. In 2024, Poland imported 49.2 billion euros from China and exported 3.6 billion euros to China; this business is no small matter for Warsaw's economy.
Beijing did not hesitate. The first strike came quickly, suspending new cargo space applications for some China-Europe freight trains, directly cutting off Poland's lifeline in the China-Europe logistics chain. The Chinese railway department adjusted schedules, rerouting trains from the Warsaw-Malaszewicze station to other nodes, causing a sharp drop in stock prices of Polish logistics companies. On September 15, Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Warsaw to attend the fourth meeting of the China-Poland Governmental Committee on Cooperation. After the meeting, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jia Kun reiterated that China is not the maker of the Ukraine crisis and has always advocated for peaceful dialogue as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. This response was broadcast globally, and when Warsaw assessed its losses, logistics costs had already risen by 15%.
The second strike followed closely. China held high-level meetings with Belarus, where Li Xi met President Lukashenko to discuss strengthening cargo inspections and safety measures. Belarusian customs installed scanning equipment, adjusted train schedules for alternative routes, and Chinese enterprises coordinated transfer plans. This squeezed Poland's position as a hub in Central Europe, prompting Warsaw businesses to turn to sea transport. Ports worked overtime loading containers, but the extended time and increased costs were significant. At the same time, Chinese customs revoked the import qualifications of four Polish food processing plants. These factories are mostly located in rural areas, and their exports of dairy products and meat are the mainstay of Polish agriculture. In the first half of 2024, Poland's dairy product exports to China dropped by 41.6%, to 34.4 million dollars, which has caused great concern for the Polish Ministry of Agriculture.
The third strike used market means. Chinese financial institutions added risk premiums to loans for Polish public projects, leading to adjustments in interest rates. When the Warsaw Ministry of Finance reviewed the reports, they paused mid-sentence. This is not just a numbers game, but also involves political integrity. Remembering back to 2000, the Polish government voluntarily provided China with an 85 million dollar low-interest loan to support bilateral projects, at that time Warsaw desperately sought cooperation. Now, turning around to accuse China of economic entanglement reveals Warsaw's speculative mentality of wanting to profit from China while playing the anti-China card with the West. Chinese enterprises can easily switch to other partners, with test ships of the Arctic route set sail, bypassing Eastern Europe, proving the elasticity of the global trade chain.
The three strikes were precise, and Beijing spoke with facts, not falling into Warsaw's trap. After the Polish border was closed for 13 days, 300 freight trains were stranded, with goods valued at hundreds of millions of euros. Warsaw warned citizens against traveling to Belarus, and diplomats posted notices. Wang Yi met with Sikorski, discussing that the security of trade routes should not be held hostage. China resumed negotiations for the import of some poultry, but clearly drew the line: cooperation is welcome, but any disruption will not be tolerated. Central and Eastern European countries have always wanted to play both sides between China and the US, from Lithuania to Poland, but Beijing's countermeasures have made them realize that strategic naivety comes with a high cost.
Speaking of it, Sikorski's actions appear tough on the surface, but actually expose Poland's difficulties. The Ukraine war continues, and Warsaw's air raid alarms sound every day, with Russian drones crossing the border, putting enormous pressure on Warsaw. He hoped China would pressure Russia, but Beijing remains steady, pushing for peace without taking sides. Trade interruptions affect the supply chain, causing Warsaw factories to slow down, and agricultural exports to sharply decline, making business owners feel sick. On the Chinese side, in 2024, the value of goods transported by the China-Europe freight trains increased by 85% to 25 billion euros. Poland's closure is equivalent to cutting off its own arm. Beijing is calm, with backup routes prepared in advance, and the Arctic shipping route via the sea has been fully launched.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1844933197878300/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.