Reference News Network, March 18 report: According to Reuters, on March 15, Saudi Aramco wrote in a letter to oil buyers this week that it was unclear which port would be used for oil exports in April, revealing a new reality: Iran, not the United States, holds the key to reopening the global energy market.

A buyer who frequently purchases Saudi oil said after receiving the letter: "I might as well call Iran and ask when this war will end so I can get my oil."

The above comments reflect a growing belief in the Middle East and beyond: although the US and Israel can declare an end to the war at any time, Iran has the final say on how long this supply disruption of oil and natural gas, described by the International Energy Agency as the worst in history, will last. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that the US is close to winning this rapidly escalating war, but the time frames he has given range from days to weeks.

Iran retaliated against US-Israeli attacks by launching drones and missiles against ships in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cutting off about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, which are delivered to refineries, petrochemical plants, power plants, and energy-intensive industries around the world.

Middle Eastern and Western corporate executives warned that even if the war were to stop immediately, more than just US security assurances would be needed to restore shipping and production.

The ability of Tehran to produce and use low-cost drones means Iran can disrupt or paralyze shipping, and this situation could persist for a long time after the attackers declare the end of hostilities. Trump has said the US may use military escorts to help restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and urged allies to send warships to protect the strait.

But a senior official in the Gulf energy industry said that unless the agreement between the US and Israel with Tehran includes Iran ceasing attacks or threats against shipping, naval escorts would not be able to restore traffic. He added that his tanker would remain where it was until Iran guaranteed safe passage.

Neil Killeen of the UK-based Royal Institute of International Affairs said that if the US and Israel declared victory under conditions unacceptable to Iran, Tehran would likely respond by causing more destruction through mines and drones to show it had not been defeated. Drones also attacked an oil terminal in Fujairah, UAE, just hours after the US struck military targets at Iran's main oil export port, Khark Island.

Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst now working at RBC Capital Markets in Canada, said Iran is sending a message: there is no safe haven in this conflict, and the conditions for escalation are not controlled by Washington. She pointed out that proxy attacks could occur in Yemen, Iraq, and other places.

An energy advisor to the Iraqi government said the crisis has destroyed confidence in supply routes and exposed weaknesses in the region's ability to defend its energy systems. He added that repairs would take several months, and due to a higher perception of risk, shipping insurance would become more expensive and harder to obtain. Iranian attacks have caused refineries in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel to shut down, pushing oil and natural gas prices up by as much as 60%. Analysts at institutions like Morgan Stanley said that even if the conflict ends quickly, the market would remain chaotic for weeks.

Analysts at Rapidian Energy Consulting said that global oil companies returning to the Gulf might do so slowly, which would delay the restart of some oil fields and could potentially damage oil reserves. The closure of shipping channels has also forced oil-producing countries to cut production because they can no longer export oil. Saudi Aramco has halted production at two major offshore fields, Safaniya and Zuluf, reducing the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s largest producer by 20%. Analysts said that the second-largest OPEC producer, Iraq, saw its output drop by 70%, while the third-largest, the UAE, saw its output fall by half. (Translated by Yang Xinpeng)

Original source: toutiao.com/article/7618564344980226623/

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