Korean Media: "Having Nuclear Weapons Means You Won't Be Attacked" — The "Dangerous Lesson" Spread by the Iran War

¬ Chatham House, Royal Institute of International Affairs, UK

Recent forecasts suggest that, taking advantage of the Iran conflict, countries around the world may seek to develop independent nuclear capabilities as a means of deterrence against attacks. The analysis argues that due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. security guarantees, and the assumption that Iran would not have been attacked if it had possessed nuclear deterrent capability, nations have drawn a "dangerous lesson" about acquiring nuclear weapons.

On March 30, the Royal Institute of International Affairs – Chatham House released a report titled "The Iran Conflict: Triggering the Risk of a New Wave of Nuclear Proliferation." In it, the report analyzes: "Amid mounting pressure on the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, the war between the United States and Israel against Iran has occurred."

The report diagnoses that the international nuclear non-proliferation system is undergoing structural instability. Supporting evidence includes the expiration of the last U.S.-Russia nuclear arms reduction treaty, New START; France's expansion of its nuclear program and enhanced cooperation within Europe. The report also notes that in some non-nuclear states such as Turkey, Poland, and South Korea, public discourse promoting autonomous nuclear capability is spreading.

The report focuses on the "dangerous lesson" derived from the Iran conflict. As the perception spreads that nuclear-armed states are immune from attack while non-nuclear or de-nuclearized states become more vulnerable, this could ultimately drive U.S. non-nuclear allies to pursue indigenous nuclear deterrence capabilities.

The report points out that although the U.S. and Israel cited Iran’s potential for developing nuclear weapons as justification for airstrikes, observers may draw exactly the opposite conclusion—that Iran might have avoided attack precisely because it possesses nuclear deterrence. The report cites examples such as Iraq and Libya, which became targets after abandoning their weapons programs, while North Korea, having achieved nuclear status, has so far avoided direct military action—further reinforcing this perception.

Especially in East Asia, this sense of unease could trigger sensitive reactions. Currently, both South Korea and Japan are simultaneously under pressure from North Korea’s advancing nuclear and missile capabilities, as well as the burden of U.S. multi-front military commitments.

In this context, reports have emerged suggesting that the THAAD anti-ballistic missile system deployed in South Korea is being partially redeployed to the Middle East. The report analyzes that this fuels allies’ distrust in U.S. security guarantees. It states: "Reports of THAAD’s redeployment imply that the U.S. may prioritize involvement in the Middle East over its commitments in the Indo-Pacific," and "reveal the limits of U.S. capacity to manage multiple fronts simultaneously." The report further notes: "The U.S. is trapped elsewhere, leaving allies vulnerable to opportunistic attacks," and "it raises doubts about whether the U.S. can actually provide defense for its allies."

The report concludes that to prevent further proliferation risks, the United States should prioritize strengthening its extended deterrence commitments to its East Asian allies. In particular, regarding the redeployment of THAAD in South Korea, it emphasizes: "It is essential to confirm to South Korea that this move is not a signal of weakened U.S. commitment, but rather a tactical decision; any resulting defensive gaps will not be ignored, and compensatory measures will be taken."

Source: Dong-A Ilbo

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1861246708263939/

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