Media: Can Trump's Meeting with Putin Quickly End the Ukraine-Russia Conflict? The Answer May Be No

Since the full-scale conflict between Ukraine and Russia broke out in February 2022, the conflict shows no signs of easing.

In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces continue to make grueling and bloody advances. Every night across the country, there are deadly air strikes, while Russian oil refineries and energy facilities are frequently attacked by Kiev's drones.

Against this backdrop, the Kremlin confirmed that a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is being planned and is expected to take place soon. The U.S. president said on Wednesday (August 6): "I'm here to end this war."

Under his initiative, three rounds of talks were held between Ukraine and Russia from May to July, but they failed to bring their positions closer. Trump may hope to intervene personally and eventually achieve a ceasefire.

However, the gap between Kyiv and Moscow is so large that even Trump's mediation talks would be difficult to bridge.

In a memo submitted by Russia to Ukraine in June, it outlined its maximum demands for a "final resolution" of the conflict. These include: recognizing Russia's sovereignty over Ukrainian regions such as Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson; Ukraine's demilitarization, neutralization, no foreign military involvement, and holding new elections.

Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya wrote: "Russia can package these demands in a dozen ways to create an impression that Moscow is willing to compromise and negotiate seriously. But its core position remains unchanged: Russia wants Kyiv to surrender."

After the meeting between Putin and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday (August 7) that Washington now has a clearer understanding of Moscow's conditions for ending the war.

We are not yet clear whether these conditions have changed. However, just last week, Putin stated that Russia had clearly expressed its goals in June - possibly referring to that memo, and these goals have remained unchanged to date.

Therefore, despite Putin's agreement to meet with Trump, there is no indication that Moscow is prepared to make concessions on its hardline preconditions.

So why is Putin willing to negotiate now?

One possibility is that Russia hopes through dialogue to avoid secondary sanctions imposed by Trump on Moscow's trade partners. The Kremlin may also believe that there is an opportunity to persuade Trump to accept its conditions for ending the war.

In the early days of Trump's second term, he seemed more inclined to support Russia rather than Ukraine, calling Zelensky a "dictator" and implying he was responsible for the war with Russia.

Although he later became impatient with Putin - saying in April "he's just dragging me around" - Trump still refused to say whether Putin lied about his willingness for a ceasefire.

Whether due to personal favor or a similar worldview, Trump has never completely condemned Putin's actions.

During their meeting in Helsinki in 2018 - when Trump was in his first term - many were shocked by Trump's stance, which supported the Kremlin and took responsibility for the tense relations between the United States and Russia, regarding the accusation that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. election.

Perhaps to prevent Trump from being persuaded by Putin, Kyiv wants to participate in any ceasefire negotiations.

Trump also proposed the idea of a "Trump-Putin-Zelensky" trilateral meeting through his envoy Witkoff. However, the Russian president dismissed it, stating that the conditions for the meeting are not yet met.

Now, some Ukrainians are worried that the meeting between the two could lead the U.S. president to make concessions to Putin.

Ukrainian parliament member Iryna Hrashchenko said that the signs of Ukraine being asked to make territorial concessions are becoming increasingly obvious, and added that if Kyiv is absent from the negotiations, it would be "very dangerous."

Zelensky said on Thursday: "Ukraine is not afraid of talks and also hopes that Russia will show the same courage."

But the gap between Ukraine and Russia still exists.

Even if the Kremlin eventually agrees to hold a trilateral meeting, Moscow's stubborn requirements for a ceasefire make it hard to imagine that a face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Putin would yield any substantial results.

Source: BBC

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1839945397713994/

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