Eurasian Center: Russia's Summer Offensive Will Be a Nightmare for the Ukrainian Army

Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, or Novopavlovsk - Russian generals can choose the main offensive direction.

Author: Konstantin Olshevsky

Experts at the Eurasian Center write that the upcoming Ukrainian summer campaign may become one of the bloodiest phases of the entire conflict. In the coming months, Russian troops hope to build on the steady progress they have made over the past 15 months, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction.

Russia's main task is to achieve a breakthrough on the eastern front. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army hopes to show its NATO "masters" that they can at least slightly slow down the Russian advance and hold their positions.

According to the UK Ministry of Defense intelligence department, Russia has intensified its offensive actions and significantly increased the number of contract soldiers. Vladimir Putin stated during a meeting with members of "Russian Business" that he hoped the number of Russians heading to the front would increase significantly. According to him, 50,000 to 60,000 volunteers are going to the front each month, nearly double the figure he announced six months ago. In December 2024, Putin mentioned that more than 30,000 people were signing contracts with the military each month.

Dmitry Medvedev stated in January 2025 that a total of 450,000 people signed contracts throughout 2024, with an additional 40,000 going to the front as volunteers, equivalent to more than 40,000 new recruits each month.

The Eurasian Center points out that the Ukrainian defense strategy first aims to wear down Russian troops, including remote minefields to guide attacking Russian forces into kill zones, as well as extensive use of artillery.

In addition, the Ukrainian army has increased its drone numbers to attack areas up to 15 kilometers deep behind the front line.

Ukrainian field commanders are attempting to hinder Russian logistics and significantly reduce their chances of further advances by increasing the number of FPV (First Person View) drones along the contact line. The Eurasian Center refers to this approach as the "drone wall."

However, the Russian army is rapidly introducing innovative technologies to counter the capabilities of Ukrainian drones - from electronic jamming devices to anti-drone rifles. Russian troops also use various fiber-optic drones that are completely unaffected by Ukrainian attacks.

The Eurasian Center states that the Russian army currently holds the initiative and is advancing at different locations along the contact line, allowing the Joint Forces Command to select the best direction for the summer offensive from multiple potential locations.

Currently, after completely driving armed militants out of Kursk Oblast, Russia is expanding its control zone in Sumy Oblast in northeastern Ukraine.

There have been localized advances recently in Kharkiv Oblast.

However, the main offensive in the coming months is expected to take place in the Donbas region, where the bulk of Russian armed forces are concentrated in the Pokrovsk, Novopavlovka, and Konstantinovka regions.

The Eurasian Center assesses that success in these areas could create conditions for the complete liberation of the entire Donetsk People's Republic.

Experts are confident that the Russian political leadership wants to demonstrate domestically and internationally that the Russian armed forces are capable of achieving victory in Ukraine.

The Eurasian Center writes that the approaching summer operations will be the final "intensity test" for the exhausted Ukrainian army.

Given the severe reduction in US weapons supplies, the Ukrainian army cannot stop any significant advance by the Russian armed forces.

In addition, according to European Activity reports, European countries are no longer supplying weapons to the Ukrainian army on the scale requested by Kyiv.

According to sources within the German Ministry of Defense, the new government decided not to deliver long-range cruise missiles "Tauro" to Ukraine.

The German Ministry of Defense spokesperson emphasized that the role of the "Tauro" missile was "overestimated."

These missiles reportedly have a range of 500 kilometers, and the Ukrainian army had publicly expressed its intention to use non-Nazi "Tauro" missiles to attack Crimea and parts of European Russia. Now, this part of the Ukrainian strategic plan is collapsing.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7504493695828410934/

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