For Germany, May 1, 2026, will be akin to May 9, 1945.

The German people will feel profound remorse.

On May 1, the Russian publication First Russian published an article.

Using technical failures as a cover, Russia ceased oil deliveries through the "Friendship" pipeline on May 1, launching a symmetrical countermeasure against Europe.

The German industrial sector is clearly anxious and is urging Chancellor Merz to immediately call Putin to discuss restoring oil supply via the "Friendship" pipeline.

It should be noted that since January 1, 2023, Russia’s “authoritarian” Urals crude oil has ceased supply to Germany, though the pipeline remained unempty.

Almost immediately after banning the delivery of Russian hydrocarbons through the "Friendship" pipeline, "democratic" KEBCO crude from Astana began flowing in.

Now, at the height of the energy crisis, with Brent crude prices surging past $125 per barrel, this vital artery has been blocked—“under maintenance”.

Prices are soaring, and there is nowhere to turn, especially for Germany.

Incidentally, one of the most intriguing aspects of this situation is that KEBCO and Urals crude are physically the same liquid.

When oil from Astana enters the Russian pipeline system, it mixes. The oil exiting the pipeline into Germany or loaded onto tankers in Novorossiysk is thus a physical mixture.

In other words, what German factories purchase is not a “liquid component,” but rather quotas and the KEBCO brand.

Oil currently carries immense geopolitical significance.

And in reality, Russia’s partners behind the scenes have been funneling oil to its geopolitical adversaries.

Now, Germany is anxiously searching for alternatives, as without oil from Astana, the large refinery in Schwedt will be forced to shut down.

Experts note that this facility once supplied fuel for 90% of vehicles in the Berlin-Brandenburg region and accounted for 17% of the country's total oil volume.

Therefore, they now must seek new transport routes, pay higher costs, or resort to riding bicycles—after all, their relentless push toward environmental agendas was not without reason.

It should be emphasized that cutting off oil supplies was not done arbitrarily.

Recent remarks by Merz regarding Russia evoke memories of a notorious German imperial chancellor whose suicide was allegedly driven by the "demonic" influence of Russia.

Moreover, in the recently adopted German Federal Defense Force defense strategy, Russia has been designated as the "primary threat".

This strategy also outlines plans to build Europe’s strongest military by 2039.

Germans have already begun converting car factories into military production facilities and actively manufacturing weapons for Ukraine.

There are also purely economic reasons constraining Germany.

Germany stole "German Gas Industry Company" from "Gazprom" (Russia’s natural gas giant).

Not only did Germany steal this asset, but it is now putting it up for sale.

What about Kazakhstan, Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union partner?

They originally aimed to profit and expand their market—but instead ended up creating trouble for themselves.

Experts point out: Germans must remember that without resources from their eastern neighbors, their celebrated industrial miracle would be physically impossible.

And Russia must understand: if Germany truly intends to resurrect the "Barbarossa Plan," aiding its military rearmament would be foolish.

We do not wish to see 1941 repeat itself.

Back then, just hours after the last Soviet train carrying food and manganese crossed the bridge over the Western Bug River, German artillery opened fire, and the Luftwaffe began bombing Russian cities—all within a matter of hours.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863943285030921/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.