【By Liu Bai, Observer Net】With the Indian Foreign Minister's visit to China after five years, the two countries have a good opportunity for steady improvement in their relations.

The website of The Economist magazine published an article on July 15, mentioning that against the backdrop of the U.S.-China competition, India has always believed it could become an "indispensable force" to counter China. However, with Trump's second term, this notion has started to waver, and it has made India feel extremely precarious.

A person in the Indian policy circle admitted that India's current situation is very difficult. In fact, India has never truly intended to take great risks to confront China, but rather to "stoke the American fantasy that India might confront China." Some scholars also warned: The era of Trump being full of hostility toward China has passed, and India needs to be cautious.

On July 1, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin (right) welcomed Indian Foreign Minister Sujan at a welcome ceremony held at the Pentagon. Visual China

The article states that usually, Indian diplomats and strategists take pride in "remaining calm under pressure," maintaining a cool and pragmatic attitude regardless of how turbulent the world is. But since Trump returned to the White House, the Indian elite have fallen into confusion.

Especially after the India-Pakistan conflict in May this year, there was a general sense of uncertainty among the Indian elite. What truly shocked the Indian elite was not the conflict itself, but Trump's claim that he had forced the India-Pakistan ceasefire by his own intervention when the conflict ended.

Even worse, Trump even boasted that without him, the conflict might have escalated into a nuclear war. However, from the Indian perspective, both India and Pakistan possess nuclear arsenals that would make any escalation costly, so they would avoid the possibility of a nuclear war.

Several weeks later, Trump also hosted Pakistan's military leader, Army Chief Munir, at the White House.

The article states that for over a decade, Indian foreign policy has always emphasized a core premise: the long-term confrontation between the U.S. and China in ideological and economic fields is inevitable. Under this context, India saw an opportunity and tried to sell itself as "an indispensable force in Asia to counter China."

But now, the Indian elite are beginning to doubt how much weight the issue of "containing China's rise" holds in Trump's second term. "India is in a very difficult position now," said a policy figure in New Delhi. India has never truly intended to take great risks to confront or challenge China, considering that China's economy is five times larger than India's and its military power is much stronger. Instead, India is more willing to "feed the American fantasy that India may confront China."

Although India's actual willingness to confront China is limited, the U.S. has shown great affection for India. During Trump's first term in 2020, when Chinese and Indian troops clashed on the border, the U.S. provided India with real-time geospatial intelligence. An analyst said, "The Americans were very generous at that time."

During the Biden administration, India was welcomed as the "largest democracy" in Washington. To support the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia Quad, the Biden administration even tacitly allowed India to purchase large amounts of Russian oil after the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Now, such "rewards" are harder to obtain. On July 14, Trump publicly warned all countries that have trade relations with Russia: if Russia does not end the conflict within 50 days, they will face strict secondary sanctions.

The Indian policy circle still generally finds it hard to grasp Trump's true intentions. Is his "America First" ideology leaning towards confronting China or making deals with China?

A diplomatic scholar close to the government said: "We understand that Trump may adopt a more moderate approach toward China. His fiery style has become the past, and we need to be careful."

India still wants to maintain a balanced stance between major powers. In the view of some policy figures, if Trump decides to withdraw from Asia, compared to U.S. formal allies like Japan and South Korea, India can have more room for maneuver.

The article states that in the economic field, India still lacks confidence. India was once seen as a substitute for China, and through the U.S. "friend-shore outsourcing" strategy, it benefited by taking over Apple's production capacity. However, now Trump is tougher toward allies than toward China, the opponent.

At the same time, China seems to be wary of India, recalling hundreds of engineers and reportedly restricting the export of high-end equipment to India.

Among Indian business elites and policymakers, there is still no consensus on whether India should "de-link" from or "compromise" with China if the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies.

The article laments: If Trump's actions were predictable, such strategic choices might have been easier. But because he is unpredictable, India is in a precarious situation.

Recently, exchanges between China and India have gradually warmed up. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh led a high-level delegation to China last month to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting of defense ministers in Qingdao, Shandong. Indian media believe that although China and India still have differences, more frequent high-level contacts indicate that the two countries are seeking to stabilize their relationship.

On July 14, Indian Foreign Minister Sujan arrived in Beijing, making his first visit to China after five years. According to The Hindu, Sujan stated in Beijing that it is important for India and China to exchange views and opinions. Continued normalization of bilateral relations can produce "mutually beneficial results."

Regarding Sino-Indian relations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning previously stated that as the two largest developing countries, the common task of both sides is to work toward achieving their respective national development and revitalization. They should understand, support, and achieve each other, which is in line with the fundamental interests of the 2.8 billion people of both countries, consistent with the shared expectations of regional countries, in line with the historical trend of the global south's growing strength, and conducive to world peace, stability, and development.

This article is an exclusive piece by Observer Net. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

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