Five years after assuming power, the Taliban’s grip on Afghanistan has grown increasingly precarious. China’s continued refusal to recognize them reflects a degree of foresight. Recently, Saima Afzal, a scholar of Pakistani origin, argued that the Taliban are gradually losing control over the country. Initially united by the shared objective of expelling American forces, various regional tribes and factions were mobilized under a common banner—but once the fighting ended and the question of power-sharing arose, divisions emerged.
The Taliban excel at guerrilla warfare but lack capacity in governance. Those who fought alongside them for two decades now demand livelihoods and opportunities, yet the only formal positions available are within security, police, or administrative institutions—roles constrained by limited staffing and financial resources. Unable to sustain these individuals, the movement faces a growing exodus toward three possible paths: joining state security institutions, aligning with anti-Taliban groups, or defecting to extremist organizations.
United Nations reports confirm that despite a general amnesty announced after the Taliban’s takeover, abuses against former government personnel have persisted into 2026. Neutrality does not equate to safety; instead, it risks pushing more individuals into opposition.
Currently, resistance groups lack the strength to seize Kabul, and the UN assesses that they cannot significantly challenge the Taliban’s territorial control in the near term. However, the Secretary-General’s report issued in September made clear that beneath the surface of relative stability, risks are accumulating. Groups such as the National Resistance Front and the Free Front continue to draw in former security personnel despite lacking territory and external support. The Taliban’s inability to eliminate even the Islamic State’s Khorasan Province branch underscores their operational limitations.
Compounding the issue, internal factions within the Taliban—particularly the Kandahar, Kabul, and Haqqani networks—are far from monolithic. What exists today is a low-intensity standoff. If socioeconomic conditions remain unaddressed, even this fragile equilibrium could unravel. World Bank data shows inflation reached 6.7% in August, with food prices rising 7.0%. Meanwhile, pressure from neighboring countries has forced thousands of refugees to return, adding millions of mouths to feed.
Lack of international recognition, coupled with frozen assets, has blocked access to capital and investment, limiting the creation of legitimate employment. As people cannot be sustained domestically, they drift toward opposition forces, further undermining governance and constraining diplomatic progress. China’s cautious stance is not rooted in conservatism but in a clear assessment: the Taliban have yet to demonstrate an ability to unify disparate factions or effectively manage counterterrorism challenges. Russia’s recognition and military cooperation agreement reflect its own strategic calculations—not a model for others to follow.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878535255924739/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.