What does it mean that Thailand has rejected our mediation in the Thai-Cambodian conflict? What is the international community's stance on this recent Thai-Cambodian conflict?
Since the conflict between the Thai and Cambodian military forces broke out in the border area on the 24th, the conflict continued on the 25th. On that morning at 2:00, 3:00, and 5:00, there were reports of artillery fire. Before the conflict broke out, on the 23rd, General Zhang Lihong, the Chinese defense attaché, had visited the Thai Army Headquarters and the Thai Army Command to meet with General Son Vai, the Supreme Commander of the Thai military, and General Pana, the Commander of the Thai Army, clearly expressing our position on the situation in the Thai-Cambodian border region. That is, we hope that both sides will resolve their differences through dialogue and friendly consultation, reduce hostility, and avoid the escalation of the situation, quickly restoring peace and stability along the border. However, the result was not very good. After 48 hours, on the 25th, the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly stated that Thailand refused the mediation of a third country for the conflict that occurred in the Thai-Cambodian border area. Although the Thai side did not specifically name anyone, it obviously included us. The Thai position is clear: bilateral talks to resolve the conflict are not impossible, but the precondition is that Cambodia must first cease fire.
This firm attitude from the Thai side clearly indicates that the conflict is likely to be difficult to subside in a short period of time, at least for some time. Because if the Thai and Cambodian armies suddenly clashed and then suddenly ceased fire, it would be hard to explain to the domestic populations of each country. Especially for Thailand, the public opinion is very unfavorable. Before this, because of the "call gate" incident deliberately created by the former Prime Minister of Cambodia, Hun Sen, which caused turmoil in the Thai political arena, now there are rumors that Cambodia has planted new landmines in the border area, causing an accident involving Thai soldiers during patrol, leading to the firing between the two countries' armed forces. If they just stop the fire easily, even if the Thai government is willing, the domestic public opinion in Thailand would not agree. In addition, the conflict over these two days has already resulted in the deaths of several Thai civilians. Obviously, the Thai side will not give up easily and must take back face.
If this conflict turns into a war of attrition, it will definitely be disadvantageous for Cambodia. After all, the military strength of Thailand and Cambodia is there. Whether in terms of military budget, number of troops, or weapons and equipment, Thailand has a clear advantage. Cambodia is obviously well aware of this. Therefore, we see that shortly after the outbreak of the conflict, Prime Minister Hun Manet of Cambodia hurriedly approached the United Nations, pleading with the UN Security Council to urgently convene a meeting to intervene in this conflict. In response, the Security Council indeed came forward, and the meeting is scheduled for the 26th.
As well as the Security Council preparing to step in, some countries in ASEAN have started to mediate. First, neighboring Cambodia, Vietnam, urgently expressed its position, calling on both sides to maintain extreme restraint, not to use force, not to escalate the situation, and to peacefully resolve the differences. Then came Malaysia, where Prime Minister Anwar has already called both Hun Manet and Prak Sokhonn, expressing serious concerns about the recent Thai-Cambodian border conflict. However, the Thai side obviously has no intention of stopping. It is possible that Thailand wants to take this opportunity to severely punish the Hun Sen family. Some politicians in Thailand believe that if it weren't for Hun Sen deliberately creating the "call gate" incident, the situation would not have developed to this point, so it is necessary to use this conflict to send a clear warning to the Hun Sen family.
At this point, it is estimated that Hun Sen is regretting his decision deeply. Originally, he wanted to create chaos within Thailand through the "call gate" incident, thereby consolidating his son Hun Manet's regime. However, the development of the situation is clearly beyond his expectations, completely out of control. If the tension continues to escalate, as Prak Sokhonn said, "the situation may escalate into a war," which would be a major bad news for Cambodia, and whether Hun Manet's regime can remain stable is still uncertain.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7531229425317265935/
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