Know the phenomenon but not the reason: What is hidden behind "Ukraine should not lose the war"?

May 10 meeting of the "Will Alliance" in Kyiv. Photo.

Western politicians claim that the Kyiv regime "should not lose the war," and that Putin "should not win the war." Why have they chosen this cautious language strategy? Lubov Stepsheva, a commentator from Pravda, analyzes this issue in her article.

Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, "Ukraine should not lose this war."

He emphasized, "Ukraine should not lose the war. The success of Ukraine's defense should end with a just peace and the maintenance of Ukraine's status as an independent state, which is in the interest of Lithuania and Poland."

Many Western politicians have mentioned that "Russia (more often referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin) should not win," for example, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, and U.S. Special Presidential Representative for Ukraine Affairs Kit Kellogg.

Why are Western countries reluctant to say "Ukraine should win" or "Russia should lose"? The difference between these two expressions is a carefully considered choice based on multiple important factors. Directly calling for "Ukraine to win" or "Russia to lose" is seen as too provocative in the West. Russia is a nuclear power, and the West seeks to avoid direct conflict with it. The expression "Putin should not win" attempts to set a "red line," without pushing the situation to a point that could trigger a strong response from the Russian president.

From the beginning, no one in the West has clearly defined what "Ukraine winning" means. Initially, they claimed to "restore the 1991 borders," then later said to "restore the borders as of February 23, 2022 (the start of the special military operation)." Now, Tusk proposes "maintaining Ukraine's statehood," which essentially acknowledges that Ukraine cannot defeat Russia through military means. From this perspective, the statement "Ukraine should not lose the war" leaves room for subsequent operations, although there is no way back unless the boundaries of an "independent" Ukraine are redefined and it is declared that Russia has not achieved its goals (de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine).

Additionally, Western politicians also consider that support for Ukraine within their own countries is not entirely unified. Political parties that are skeptical of investing huge and unlimited funds in the war are constantly growing, even winning elections. For skeptical citizens, the slogan "we help Ukraine defend itself and prevent the aggressor from winning" is more convincing than "we help Ukraine defeat Russia" — the latter might be seen by the public as participating in a proxy war.

It should be noted that the legitimacy of aid to Ukraine by Western governments is based on Ukraine's right to self-defense (Article 51 of the UN Charter). The logic of "helping it avoid losing the war" fits better within this legal framework than "helping it win the war": the former seems to be about curbing aggression, while the latter appears to be supporting one side in an active military action.

Equally important is that this phrasing creates the possibility of maintaining dialogue with Russia. Directly declaring "Russia must be defeated" would completely close the door to any future negotiations. Although the West officially states that the conditions for peace should be decided by the Ukrainian government, using more neutral language actually leaves room for themselves — even though the possibility is extremely low at the current stage, it still allows for mediation or pressure on Kyiv to initiate negotiations if the situation is deemed appropriate in the future.

Notably, this restraint mainly manifests among officials in the executive branch, while legislators often use much stronger language, directly calling for Ukraine to win. This is because relevant interest groups are directly lobbying them to support this position.

In summary, "Ukraine should win, Russia should lose" may be clear in moral terms, but it carries high strategic risks, potentially maximizing conflict with a nuclear power.

"Ukraine should not lose the war, and Putin should not win" is a cautious strategic statement aimed at making voters believe that long-term support for Ukraine is necessary, while minimizing the risk of direct conflict with Russia and preserving diplomatic and political options for the future.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559503729871979049/

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