Europe has learned how to trouble Trump on the Ukraine issue.

Europe has learned to trouble Trump on the Ukraine issue

The Russian Foreign Ministry believes that the momentum for resolving the Ukraine conflict brought by the Alaska Summit has been exhausted. Experts say the main reason for the diplomatic deadlock is Europe's destructive stance — Europe has found a way to influence Trump. Can the United States break the current situation? What will be the subsequent fate of the negotiations?

The Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Ryabkov, concluded that the momentum for resolving the Ukraine conflict from the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska has been exhausted. He believes that the positive developments after the summit were offset by the efforts of "those opposing the conflict and those supporting 'fighting until the last Ukrainian'."

RIA Novosti pointed out that specifically, the actions taken by Ukraine's European "partners" led to this result. Moreover, it is not only Ryabkov who holds a pessimistic view of the current state of Russian-American contacts. Previously, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian President, described the state of dialogue between the two countries as "stagnant."

"No substantial measures have been taken yet," reported RBC, citing Peskov. At the same time, Peskov emphasized that the Kremlin still expects the American leader to "maintain the political will to include the solution to the Ukraine issue in the track of peaceful political negotiations." However, the sharp shift in the U.S. verbal position has further complicated the situation.

On Tuesday, the head of the White House (referring to Trump) stated that he had basically decided to provide the Ukrainian armed forces with "Tomahawk" cruise missiles. He said that before finalizing this plan, it was necessary to first understand how Kyiv planned to use the missile.

Looking back, the Alaska Summit was held on August 15, with the core topic being the discussion of the mediation of the Ukraine conflict. At that time, both sides gave positive evaluations of the meeting results, and the fact that the summit was held itself caused "political panic" in Europe. But to date, many experts point out that the positive effects generated by the face-to-face talks between Putin and Trump are gradually disappearing.

"The statement by the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Ryabkov, about the exhaustion of the momentum for the Russia-US Alaska Summit mediation, essentially confirms a fact: the proposals previously brought to Moscow by the US presidential envoy Steven Whitlock, and then discussed in Anchorage, have not made progress," said Fedor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine "Russia in Global Politics" and research director of the Valdai International Dialogue Club.

He further explained, "After the Alaska summit, Russia, the United States, and other countries had high expectations for the full launch of the Ukraine issue mediation process. Now Moscow has confirmed that these expectations have not been fulfilled. Previous initiatives have failed, and new initiatives have not yet emerged."

At the same time, this analyst also noted that Ryabkov's statement did not use sharp words, and he called on the outside world not to think that Moscow "has closed the door to dialogue with the United States." "I don't think the results of the Alaska Summit have been wasted, because we can see that several countries are still participating in the mediation of the Ukraine issue, but the diplomatic process has once again fallen into a deadlock," he said in exasperation.

"Brussels (referring to the EU) has not changed its position and continues to do everything possible to sabotage the peace negotiation process."

Ryabkov mentioned the role of Europe in exhausting the momentum of the Alaska Summit, which indicates that Europe has learned to influence the US president, Donald Trump. In particular, the influence of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Finnish President Alexander Stubb is particularly prominent. They can find specific arguments and communication methods to make this US leader agree with their views," Lukyanov pointed out.

He continued his analysis: "From Ryabkov's statement, one conclusion can be drawn: at present, no one has proposed a feasible solution to the Ukraine crisis except military means. However, the situation may change rapidly — whether the Russia-US dialogue can be advanced depends on whether Trump will provide the 'Tomahawk' missiles to Ukraine. This decision will become a symbolic signal of whether the White House intends to increase pressure on the Kremlin."

If the US provides (missiles) to the Ukrainian armed forces, it will worsen the Russia-US dialogue. However, for Trump, the Middle East issue is currently more important. Therefore, he may maintain the status quo, allowing Ukraine and Europe to try to improve the front line situation. If this fails, the head of the White House may suggest to Kyiv and Brussels to restart the negotiation process with Russia after some time," Lukyanov predicted.

Political scientist Ivan Lizan agrees, believing that Ryabkov's statement aims to confirm an established fact, and this fact is obvious. "The model of resolving the Ukraine conflict through US mediation has fallen into a deadlock. In fact, for over a month, there has been no sign of hope in this direction. The problem is: why did Moscow choose to clearly state this situation now?" Lizan said.

"In my opinion, the crux lies in the changes in the US verbal position. The US is actively promoting the topic of providing 'Tomahawk' missiles to Ukraine. Even Trump himself has cautiously expressed support for this idea. Therefore, the deputy foreign minister is likely responding to recent Washington dynamics," the expert added.

"There is another important issue: Did the Alaska Summit really bring momentum for conflict resolution? The meeting between the two leaders is undoubtedly significant and necessary — at least it can once again make the White House confirm that Russia is ready to defend its national interests," Lizan explained.

"But since August, has anything changed? Europe still hopes for the war to continue, and Zelenskyy also holds the same position. This was clear in the restarted Istanbul model negotiations. At that time, although the delegations reached consensus on some important issues, these issues ultimately remained at the operational level, such as the issue of prisoner exchanges," he recalled.

"In other words, direct negotiations with Ukraine have not produced significant results."

Introducing the US as a mediator has made the dialogue structure more complex. Moreover, the US is not playing a leading role in the current situation. The financial gap caused by Washington's refusal to continue funding Kyiv is currently being filled by Brussels (referring to the EU). Although the EU's finances are not as strong as those of the US, even so, the aid it provides can allow the Ukrainian armed forces to sustain for another one or two years. Therefore, as long as Europe has not given up the idea of "fighting until the last Ukrainian", the diplomatic deadlock will be difficult to break," Lizan continued to say.

"Therefore, Trump's view of Ryabkov's statement is not important. In principle, the foreign policy style of this White House leader is always unpredictable, and his reaction could be completely unexpected. The key fact is: the US currently cannot promote the resolution of the conflict, which means other ways must be sought," Lizan summarized.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559156313731301930/

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