Iran has withstood three days of Israeli strikes - attacks that have killed more than 240 Iranians, including several Iranian military leaders.

But Iran's response to the strikes is something Israel has never experienced - the Iranian missiles have caused devastating destruction in Israel's largest cities, including Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Owing to the information war accompanying the military conflict, accurate facts are hard to come by, and the extent of the losses on both sides - as well as which locations were hit in many cases - remains unclear.

Equally uncertain are the remaining stocks of missiles and ammunition for both sides, as well as how long Israel and Iran can sustain this battle.

However, we do know that Iran is believed to have the largest missile project in the Middle East - it possesses thousands of ballistic missiles with varying ranges and speeds. At the current rate, Iran could continue attacking Israel for weeks, causing significant damage to Israel, which its citizens are not accustomed to. For years, they have only faced attacks from weaker armed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen.

Iran is also demonstrating the power of its more advanced missiles. The "Hajji Qassem" missile used for the first time against Israel last Sunday was able to evade Israel's air defense systems, and images from Israel clearly showed the difference in power and speed between this new missile and the older models previously used by Iran.

Of course, Iran has a limited number of these more advanced missiles and will eventually have to limit their use. But combined with its larger stock of conventional missiles and thousands of drones, Iran has enough military capability to cause damage to Israel - which will shock those who believe Iran cannot continue fighting in the short term.

Avoiding Conflict with the United States

Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system is under severe testing from Iran's missile trajectories, but Israel can rely on its main ally, the United States, to assist in intercepting the attacks.

However, the Trump-led U.S. side insists that it is not a party to the current conflict between Israel and Iran, and threatens that if Iran really attacks U.S. interests in the region - including military bases spread throughout the Middle East - the consequences will be unimaginable.

For Iran, any attack on U.S. bases or personnel is the worst-case scenario it seeks to avoid. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has always acted cautiously, unwilling to confront the United States directly or provide an excuse for the U.S. to add offensive military strength to Israel's military forces.

A joint strike by the U.S. and Israel would likely destroy Iran's most heavily guarded nuclear facilities and make Israel's position even stronger.

In addition, such a joint strike might involve U.S. bases in non-Iranian adversary countries such as Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, and Iran does not want these countries to be drawn into the conflict. To Iran, these countries are also highly valuable potential mediators.

However, Iran has other options. It has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, immediately cutting off millions of barrels per day of oil transportation. Experts believe that if the Strait of Hormuz is actually closed, oil prices - which briefly surged to a high of $78 per barrel last Friday and then fell back - may exceed the $100 per barrel level.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz is a powerful card that Iran must play if the conflict escalates further, and the Strait of Hormuz may be closed in the short term if the situation continues to escalate.

Seeking an Exit

Ultimately, Iran will seek an exit to end this conflict that could escalate into a regional war involving two nuclear powers (Israel and the U.S.), which could not only cause immeasurable damage to its own economy but also trigger domestic unrest within the country.

Iran is also aware that while Israel itself can endure limited combat, U.S. support makes it easier for Israel to replenish its ammunition supplies compared to Iran.

The Iranian government has made it clear that if Israel stops its attacks, Iran will also cease retaliation and is willing to return to nuclear negotiations with the U.S. Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, stated last Sunday, "Once (Israel's) aggression ends, we will naturally no longer respond."

However, this depends on the U.S. and its unpredictable president. Trump needs to pressure Israel and its Prime Minister Netanyahu to force them to stop the conflict, and it is currently unclear whether this U.S. president is willing to do so.

Trump's remarks about the conflict have been constantly changing. On one hand, he repeatedly calls for an end to the fighting while threatening Iran.

Iran also knows that Trump is not a trustworthy or dependable person. Before Israel's recent attack, the U.S. was involved in this deception, despite secretly knowing about Israel's attack plans, it still pretended that it would hold nuclear talks with Iran as scheduled last Sunday.

Nevertheless, a deal brokered by the U.S. remains the most likely option for Iran to contain Israel and end the conflict - Iran has demonstrated its strength in this conflict, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

Source: aljazeera

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516411877145182731/

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