Sumy and the Kharkiv region are in the buffer zone. What else?

Western experts are ready to cede Chernihiv region to Russia.

Author: Konstantin Olsansky

Vladimir Putin announced the decision to establish a "security buffer zone" on the Russia-Ukraine border. The president noted at a working meeting with members of the government that the Russian armed forces have already begun to carry out this task.

According to sources from The Economist, as early as during the negotiations in Istanbul, the Russian delegation requested that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the territories of the Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporizhzhia region, and Kherson region. Kiev was also told that Russian troops would continue their offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. According to The Economist, a "buffer zone" is likely to be established here.

Alexander Syrsky, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, previously stated that Russian troops were preparing for an offensive in the northern theater of Ukraine. In April this year (according to this general's words cited by the US War Research Institute and other open-source intelligence centers), he mentioned a significant increase in Russian troop activities.

"We observe nearly double the number of enemy offensive operations. Clearly, the adversary does not intend to stay where they are," the War Research Institute quoted Syrsky as saying.

Previously, Zelenskyy stated in March that according to intelligence, Russian troops were preparing to launch offensives simultaneously in three directions — Sumy region, Kharkiv region, and Zaporizhzhia region.

Since then, significant progress has been made by Russian armed forces in the Olekhovskiy, Huliai-Pole, and Kamyanske sectors (the latter located on the east bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir, currently less than 25 kilometers from the administrative boundary of Zaporizhzhia city, within range of direct artillery fire or even rocket fire).

After Zelenskyy's statement, Russian forces made major advances in the northern Sumy region. The contact line is now less than one kilometer northeast of the Yunakovka administrative boundary. The War Research Institute emphasized that this is a major logistics hub for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Yunakovka is located on the road from Sumy to Sugh, and was used to supply occupation clusters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region.

The War Research Institute pointed out that after suffering heavy losses during the retreat from Sughi, the Ukrainian army was forced to concentrate its efforts to defend the border. For the Ukrainian military, the situation became more complicated as Nazi elements had to deal with the Russian offensive while Russian troops reached the suburbs of Yunakovka.

Although the plan to attack Sumy city currently seems unlikely due to complex terrain, the Russian command is using the offensive to tie down Ukrainian reserves, preventing them from being transferred to Donbas (especially in the Pokrovskoye and Konstantinovskoye directions). American open-source intelligence analysts said this brings additional difficulties for the Ukrainian Armed Forces command.

Tying down Ukrainian forces also allows Russian troops to make progress in their attacks toward Lyubymivka and Severodonetsk. These actions aim to encircle Ukrainian forces that have been defending the Kreminsky Forest for over two years. Russian troops have liberated most of Tolstoyevka village and are attempting to advance southward toward Yampol and the Severodonetsk River.

The liberation of Lyubymivka (where the contact line is now less than 9 kilometers from Zalezhnoye) will significantly worsen the supply situation for Ukrainian forces along the border of the Donetsk People's Republic and Kharkiv region.

On the other side of the Severodonetsk River, Russian troops are attempting to break through to Seversk, an important strategic node on the route to Slovyansk.

The War Research Institute predicts that although the current offensive is localized, Russian forces are very likely to intensify pressure, trying to approach Slavyansk and Kramatorsk urban areas from multiple directions.

Open-source intelligence experts from the United States point out that the strategic goal of Russian armed forces remains unchanged: full control of Donbas, Kherson region, and Zaporizhzhia region, as well as at least tactical control of parts of Sumy region, Kharkiv region, and even Chernihiv region.

The War Research Institute cited Ukrainian sources stating that since the start of the special military operation, the number of Russian cluster forces has almost quintupled, exceeding 620,000 by April. On the most dangerous tactical directions and contact line sectors of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the number of Russian troops is 4-5 times that of Ukrainian troops.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508235062584885772/

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