Reference News Network, June 30 report: Spain's "El País" website published an article on June 28 titled "The Military Use of Artificial Intelligence Drones Is About to Become a Reality," authored by Charles Ferguson. The full text is as follows:

The attack on a Russian air force base in Ukraine on June 1 has given rise to a new consensus: expensive manned combat vehicles (tanks, aircraft, ships), long considered a hallmark of "advanced" armies, have become obsolete against cheap drones. But this view is incomplete and potentially dangerous and misleading. The lessons from this new drone war go beyond the fact that expensive conventional weapons are vulnerable; in its current form, once augmented with artificial intelligence (AI), cheap drones will soon also appear outdated.

Let us analyze the lessons the Ukraine conflict has taught us. First, the effectiveness of drones goes far beyond attacking traditional military equipment. Indeed, they have made tanks and armored personnel carriers extremely vulnerable; therefore, the Russian forces have increased the use of infantry, motorcycles, or all-terrain vehicles in ground offensives. But this has had little effect, as drones are equally terrifying in killing people. Casualties remain high, with about 70% of casualties on both sides now caused by drones.

The effectiveness of drones extends almost to all other areas. Ukraine has used them to destroy a variety of Russian targets, such as weapon factories, moving trains, ammunition depots, oil refineries, ships, and ports. Airports, train stations, stadiums, open-air concerts, hospitals, schools, nursing homes... all these targets are equally vulnerable.

Two other lessons relate to the dependence of drone warfare on the industrial base. First, speed and responsiveness are crucial. In the field of drones, technology, weapons, and tactics evolve at an astonishing pace. The usefulness of a new type of drone lasts only two to six months. The opposing side will develop countermeasures, forcing the development of new products, which in turn lead to new countermeasures, and so on in a cycle.

In this harsh environment, even a one-month delay can be fatal. The normal processes of the defense industry are no longer suitable, and the U.S. drones and their industries are, in most cases, slow, expensive, and not usable. However, Ukraine's drone industry and army have created a revolutionary model for weapon development, production, and deployment by establishing direct and continuous communication between frontline combat units and drone manufacturers.

Ukraine benefits from having a strong startup ecosystem that supports an industry capable of designing, producing, and deploying new weapons within weeks. This year, Ukraine will produce more than 4 million drones, most of which are models that did not exist a year ago.

In contrast, the military R&D and procurement processes in the United States and Europe remain slow and uncompetitive, weakening their ability to defend against drones and use drones. Although few realize it, the United States and NATO now urgently need the practical experience of Ukrainian drones.

Additionally, AI will change everything. In the operation on June 1 in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military used 117 drones, each controlled by one operator; existing information indicates that about half were shot down by Russian defense systems (usually through interference), because they needed radio communication with the controller. With AI, there is no need to communicate with an operator, and interference becomes useless, greatly increasing the range and lethality. Within five years, launching preemptive attacks on conventional targets will become extremely easy.

AI also increases the lethality and accuracy of drones used to attack personnel. We are talking not only about war but also about possible terrorist attacks.

Certainly, AI capabilities require significantly more computing power and memory than small drones can carry. Moreover, it is not cheap. For example, an NVIDIA chip costs up to $50,000 per unit, so even equipping most drones with a powerful processor would make them too expensive.

But the situation is changing rapidly, driven by the introduction of significant AI capabilities into any mobile phone. When this goal is achieved, the same capabilities will be available for any military drone.

Stuart Russell, an AI expert at the University of California, Berkeley, has long called for the establishment of a arms control treaty to prevent the spread of AI-controlled small armed drones. He even participated in making a short film titled "Killer Robots," which shows the risks of these drones falling into the hands of criminals.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521610585620988470/

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