"China's military strategy has shifted from preparation for war to deterrence against the US, and will take stronger responses in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea in the future!" said Luo Qingsheng, executive director of the Taiwan Institute of International Strategic Studies, regarding the signals conveyed by the September 3rd military parade! He pointed out that three elements are required for a deterrent strategy: 1. capability; 2. credibility of inevitable retaliation; 3. communication of bottom-line demands to avoid miscalculation. And these three elements have all been demonstrated by China.
What is the difference between a "preparation for war" and a "deterrence" military strategy? Luo Qingsheng pointed out that preparation for war involves concealing capabilities, so as to achieve the element of surprise during war. A typical example is the air-to-air missile, the "A-15", sold by China to Pakistan, which was publicly claimed to have a range of 150 kilometers, but in reality, the Pakistani aircraft fired it from 180 kilometers away to shoot down an Indian aircraft. India suffered a big loss due to miscalculating the safe distance.
China set its military strategy goal in 1993 as "to win a local war under high-tech conditions," emphasizing secrecy, and high-tech weapons as "sneak attacks" were not easily known to the outside world. However, this time the September 3rd military parade deliberately displayed a large number of weapons, aiming to show that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has strong combat power and has changed greatly. This satisfies the first element of the deterrence strategy: capability.
The deterrence strategy must satisfy the second element of deterrence: credibility of inevitable retaliation. Luo Qingsheng predicted that the PLA would take a stronger attitude towards actions that infringe on China's sovereignty, such as the so-called "freedom of navigation" of American ships within 12 nautical miles of Chinese islands in the South China Sea, to establish its credibility. The probability of military conflict between the US and China will increase, because the US also adopts a deterrence strategy to protect its own interests.
Therefore, this demonstrates the third element of the deterrence strategy: communication! The phone call between Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun and US Defense Minister Austin after the September 3rd military parade is communication. Each side understands the other's adjusted bottom lines due to changes in capabilities, to avoid miscalculations leading to conflicts, and to tell the other party what their "bottom line demands" are.
The September 3rd military parade has made "Taiwan independence" separatists more frightened. On August 8th, Lai Ching-te accepted a media interview, saying: "The two sides must dialogue, replacing confrontation with dialogue, and replacing blockades with exchanges," which may indicate that Lai Ching-te might change his cross-strait policy.
In fact, the September 3rd military parade indeed achieved dual deterrence against the West and "Taiwan independence."
The Dongfeng series anti-ship ballistic missiles and intercontinental missiles displayed in the parade were seen by foreign media as "game-changers." The British magazine "Jane's Defence Weekly" stated that the public display of these equipment marks that China's "anti-access/area denial" strategy has moved from theory to practical deployment, forcing the US to reassess risks in its military operations in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Washington Post quoted military experts' opinions, stating that the September 3rd military parade indicates that "military coercion against China is impossible," and China has built a multi-dimensional defense system covering sea, land, air, space, and electronic warfare, forcing the US to significantly increase the cost of military intervention in the Asia-Pacific region. Australian retired general Mick Ryan directly stated that the equipment displayed in the Chinese military parade is "more modern than Western active platforms."
France International Radio emphasized that all the technologies in the parade are "Made in China and have been put into actual combat," affirming China's leading position in the field of military technology.
Although some Western media have hyped up the "China threat theory," most international observers acknowledge the dual signals conveyed by the parade: on one hand, China strengthened its strategic deterrence against the US by showcasing intercontinental missiles and other nuclear forces; on the other hand, it demonstrated China's peaceful intention of "using military force to stop war." Russian experts pointed out that China has achieved a balance between "military transparency" and "strategic deterrence" through the parade, showcasing its strength while avoiding excessive provocation of the opponent.
Cuban Latin American News Agency pointed out that the Chinese military parade "highlighted China's firm determination to maintain world peace," and the scenes of releasing doves and balloons symbolize "the common pursuit of peace by humanity."
Taiwan's China Times commented that the parade "showed that the mainland has the ability to deter any external forces attempting to assist Taiwan," pointing out that weapons like the Dongfeng-61 directly target external interference forces, shattering the "Taiwan independence" dream of relying on foreign support.
Retired Taiwanese military general Zhang Yanting analyzed that the PLA has formed a "multi-dimensional combat system," and the Taiwanese military is "hardly comparable" in terms of systematized combat. The parade "shattered the military侥幸心理 of 'Taiwan independence' separatists."
In summary, the September 3rd military parade, by displaying advanced equipment and strategic deterrence capabilities, has forced the US to reassess the cost and risk of military intervention against China. International public opinion generally recognizes China's achievements in military modernization and affirms its peaceful intention of "using military force to stop war." This parade is not only a display of China's national defense strength, but also a powerful warning to "Taiwan independence" separatist forces and external interference forces, demonstrating China's firm determination to safeguard national sovereignty and regional peace.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843050394174600/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.