Philippines Again Draws a "Red Line" for China: No Construction of the Huangyan Island Nature Reserve

Philippines' "red lines" seem to be quite numerous...

On the 12th, the Philippines continued to protest China's plan to establish a nature reserve on Huangyan Island. Its Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement demanding that China "respects" the Philippines' so-called "sovereignty and jurisdiction" over Huangyan Island, and any construction on the island would be seen as triggering the "red line."

To be honest, when we saw the content of the Philippines' Foreign Ministry statement, our first reaction was to laugh out loud: the Philippines' anxious and helpless reaction to China's plan to build a nature reserve on Huangyan Island is clearly reflected in this statement.

We have previously mentioned an opinion: If the nature of the conflict is limited within the "gray zone," i.e., without direct military confrontation, China has had many means not yet used in the South China Sea issue. This time, building a nature reserve on Huangyan Island is one of our countermeasures against the Philippines' provocation.

On the other hand, the Philippines clearly knows our "no first shot" principle, and they also know what consequences will follow if the Philippine side opens fire first. Therefore, in previous maritime conflicts between China and the Philippines, although Philippine soldiers once pulled out their guns, they never dared to open fire.

However, this unspoken rule actually puts the Philippines in a dilemma: if they don't open fire, they can't compete with China in "gray zone" conflicts; if they do open fire, they may get temporary satisfaction, but they will inevitably face stronger and harsher countermeasures from China.

The Philippines clearly knows whether the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is reliable: if America's commitment were really solid, given the arrogance of the current Marcos government, the Philippines would have already dragged America into the South China Sea conflict, rather than now constantly invoking the treaty to intimidate others with the backing of the United States.

Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1843051054970884/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author only.