American Think Tank: Russia Breaks Western 'Ukraine Hedgehog' Strategy in One Move
According to an article by Bibi, analyst at the Quincy Institute and former head of the CIA's Russia division, the sustained Russian strikes on the Odessa port have fundamentally undermined the feasibility of Ukraine's "steel hedgehog" strategy, marking a significant negative turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The Odessa port handles 90% of Ukraine's agricultural exports. Without needing to occupy Black Sea coastal territories, Russia can cripple Ukraine's core foreign trade corridor simply by precisely targeting port facilities and maritime shipping routes, effectively transforming Ukraine into a landlocked state. Alternative overland and inland water transport channels are limited in capacity and prohibitively expensive, unable to compensate for the collapse of sea freight—dealing a severe blow to Ukraine’s economic lifeline.
The article directly points out a fatal flaw in the West’s strategy of arming Ukraine to long-term counterbalance Russia: Ukraine’s air defense capabilities continue to deteriorate, while Russia maintains the ability to conduct deep strikes against infrastructure, dramatically increasing risks for postwar reconstruction investments and deterring foreign capital. Economic decline will trigger continuous loss of population and labor force, making it impossible for Ukraine to sustain a large-scale military force over the long term.
Bibi concludes that purely military measures cannot eliminate Russia’s threat of attack. If the West refuses pragmatic compromise negotiations, it will not create a strong, Russia-controllable Ukraine—but rather a weak, poorly governed state that harms Ukrainian livelihoods and continuously erodes Europe’s overall security foundation.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873207054419991/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.