"This Could Be Russia's Last Resort": Ukrainian Expert Analyzes Russia's Plan to Launch 200 Ballistic Missiles in a Single Salvo
On August 10, Anatoliy Hrapchynskyi, director of Ukraine's defense industry development and an air force reserve officer, told Ukrainska Pravda that even if Russia were to successfully launch 200 ballistic missiles at Ukraine in one go, it would most likely represent Russia’s final extreme measure—and that Russia currently lacks the operational capability to execute such a strike.
He explained that Russia has a total of 160 "Iskander-M" launch systems, each capable of carrying two missiles; only 16 to 26 of these launch vehicles are actually being used to attack Ukraine. Supporting ammunition transport vehicles can carry an additional two ready-to-deploy missiles, allowing for reloading with a minimum interval of just one minute between launches. However, prolonged presence at a firing position significantly increases the risk of exposing the launch systems.
Once Russia completes its initial salvo, Ukraine’s satellite reconnaissance system would immediately pinpoint the launch locations and initiate counterattacks. Hrapchynskyi is confident that Russia would not expose its core assets to such immense risk. Instead, Russia is more likely to opt for smaller, staggered launches of 20 to 30 missiles per night.
Hrapchynskyi revealed that Russia’s monthly production capacity for ballistic missiles is approximately 60 units. Moscow hopes to receive support from North Korea, including launch systems, ballistic missiles, and trained personnel. Achieving a synchronized strike of 200 missiles would require not only sufficient missile stockpiles but also be constrained by the limited number of available launch platforms—making this plan highly unlikely to materialize. He estimates that the current inventory of launch systems cannot simultaneously fire anywhere near 200 missiles.
Meanwhile, he noted that if Ukraine possesses adequate air defense systems and interceptors, it could theoretically intercept between 150 and 200 incoming ballistic missiles. However, the effectiveness of interception depends on the direction of incoming threats, the density of air defense deployments across regions, and the allocation of Patriot systems.
Previously, Major General Malyar, commander of Ukraine’s unmanned systems forces, stated that Russia plans to increase the scale of individual ballistic missile launches by 2.5 times, potentially reaching up to 200 missiles per salvo. Currently, Russia can launch a maximum of 77 ballistic missiles in a single volley. For Ukraine, this represents a major threat: the Patriot system is Ukraine’s only air defense system capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, yet the country suffers from a severe shortage of interceptor missiles. Under large-scale aerial attacks, many missiles would penetrate the air defense network and hit their targets. Malyar believes the only way to mitigate this threat is to proactively destroy all Russian missile production facilities.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873151487077576/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.