By Sanxuan

The White House is caught off guard

With the arrival of the U.S. soybean harvest season, pressure on U.S. farmers and the White House has been increasing, all because of a decision made by China. According to relevant data, since May this year, Chinese buyers have not placed any orders for U.S. soybeans, which has caused great anxiety among U.S. soybean farmers. They blame the tariff policies of Trump while calling on the White House to solve the problem quickly.

Facts have proven that without this huge export market, the cost is something they can't afford. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that the exports of agricultural products to China in the first seven months of this year have plummeted by 53%. Not only soybeans, but also corn and wheat exports have suffered. Don't forget that in 201, when Trump launched the trade war, he even introduced $2.3 billion in agricultural aid, but it was completely ineffective. This time, Trump is even only daring to offer "subsidy pies" without mentioning specific amounts. It's clear to everyone that this amount is not enough to fill the loss gap.

More ironically, the U.S. government is still engaging in "policy double standards." The Department of Homeland Security clearly stated that even if the government shuts down, tariffs must be collected, as it is a "necessary function"; however, the Department of Agriculture, responsible for providing subsidies to farmers, is classified as "non-essential."

On one hand, they are forcing China to impose tariffs, and on the other, they don't care about the farmers' plight. Such actions explain why farmers in Iowa are blaming Trump. After all, Iowa is a Republican stronghold, and Trump won by nearly 10 percentage points in 2020. Now, his support rate has dropped by 12% directly.

In short, whether to import U.S. soybeans is now in our hands. Because even if we continue to not import U.S. soybeans, we have plenty of alternative suppliers. In the first eight months of this year, China imported 52.74 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, accounting for 71% of China's total imports; Argentina recently announced the cancellation of a 26% export tax on its soybeans, and within 48 hours, China signed an order for 1.3 million tons. More importantly, China's own soybean production has exceeded 20 million tons for three consecutive years, all of which help us break free from dependence on U.S. soybeans.

Facing all this, it's impossible for Trump not to be worried. He has repeatedly called on China to increase its purchase of U.S. soybeans, and the U.S. side is willing to provide a fast service channel. Several rounds of Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks have seen the U.S. propose that China should allow U.S. soybeans to be released, but so far, the results have been minimal.

Additionally, after a recent phone call between the leaders of China and the United States, Trump eagerly announced that both sides would meet during the APEC Summit in November, perhaps hoping to "turn the situation around" at that time. However, the U.S. Department of Agriculture itself admits that even if the talks succeed, it will not catch up with the current soybean transportation window period. The losses of U.S. farmers have already become a certainty. Brazil is building a new deep-water port in Paraná, and Argentina is planning to establish a grain storage hub with China. These developments mean that the longer the delay, the harder it will be for the U.S. to reclaim the Chinese soybean market.

Ultimately, the root cause of the problems in U.S. agriculture lies in the hegemonistic mindset. It always assumes that it can force other countries to yield through tariff sticks, but forgets that in the era of globalization, supply chains are no longer "indispensable." China's suspension of purchases of U.S. soybeans is not a sudden impulse, but a precautionary measure; the plight of American farmers is not bad luck, but an inevitable result of government policy errors. When soybeans transform from agricultural products into "tools of geopolitical games," the final losers are the countries that always try to suppress others through hegemony.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7555449357052330515/

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