From postponing tariffs on Chinese goods to multiple rounds of negotiations on TikTok's operations, it seems that Trump's attention to the topic of Sino-US strategic competition has significantly decreased compared to his first term, and the "China hawks" within his government seem to have lost their megaphone.
Thomas Wright, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the director of strategic planning at the National Security Council in the Biden administration, wrote an article on the "Atlantic Monthly" website titled "Trump Is Not Interested in Competing with China," arguing that Trump's China strategy is centered around economic interests, and the most direct evidence of this was the rupture in US-India relations he caused.
However, this article still carries the biased perspective of the American establishment, viewing Sino-US relations and competition through the lens of a "zero-sum" game. Observers.net has selected and translated the article for reference only, and does not represent the views of this website.
【Author: Thomas Wright, Translation: Jingsheng】
Most Republicans and many officials in the Trump administration believe that the competition between the United States and China is almost a matter of survival. Obviously, Donald Trump does not see it that way. This president sees China as an economic competitor but rarely as a strategic one — a stance that is clearly reflected in his recent decision to ease restrictions on advanced chip exports. This decision gave Beijing an advantage in the artificial intelligence race, with the United States collecting a portion of the sales revenue in exchange.
Now, Trump appears to be worried about making any move that could jeopardize his summit with the Chinese leader and the trade agreement. He hinted on Truth Social that a deal on TikTok was "imminent" and concluded his post by writing that his relationship with the Chinese leader was "still very strong!!!"
There has long been a division within the Trump camp on how to deal with China. For example, during Trump's first term, former National Security Advisor McMaster proposed a strategy centered on competing with China and Russia. However, even when his aides introduced this strategy, Trump emphasized establishing a "great partnership" with Beijing and Moscow. Despite this, the China hawks in the administration achieved some progress, such as pushing to place Chinese technology companies on the trade blacklist and banning investments in companies linked to the Chinese military.
But in Trump's second term, the China hawks have been marginalized, and the president's economically focused view of China is no longer constrained. Look at how he handled TikTok. Last year, the U.S. Congress passed legislation requiring ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, to divest its business by January of this year or face closure of the platform.
The White House of Trump opened an official TikTok account on August 19, 2025. Source: Internet
However, Trump continuously issued延期 orders, effectively ignoring the law passed by Congress and related national security concerns. The terms of the agreement he hinted at are still unclear, but some preliminary reports suggest that it may closely resemble past inadequate temporary solutions, such as requiring ByteDance to "license" its algorithms to an American company rather than completely relinquishing control. If Trump's plan is merely repeating these old schemes, it would amount to yielding to Beijing.
According to reports, the U.S. government is also drafting a new defense strategy that prioritizes affairs in the Western Hemisphere rather than focusing on the threat posed by Beijing. But the most glaring example of Trump's failure to take China seriously is undoubtedly his complete destruction of the U.S.-India relationship.
So far, through the establishment of alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region, Washington has hindered Beijing's ambitions to "dominate" the region. These relationships have become the most critical strategic advantage of the United States against China, and the most important of them should have been the relationship with India. For the past 25 years, both Republicans and Democrats have worked to strengthen ties with New Delhi. Although India has long had suspicions of the United States, its concern about China's rise is greater. During the Biden administration, U.S.-India cooperation reached historic highs, signing agreements on defense production, technology transfer, and civil nuclear energy regulation.
This year, Trump seemed to prepare to continue the long-standing U.S. policy toward India and further promote bilateral relations based on his personal relationship with Indian Prime Minister Modi. In February, Modi became one of the first foreign leaders to visit Trump's White House, and the two issued a joint statement listing more than a dozen issues of mutual commitment for cooperation.
In April, after Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs on imports, many expected India to be one of the first countries to reach a trade agreement with him. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen also thought so. To strengthen the bilateral partnership, Vice President Vance visited Jaipur (the capital of Rajasthan, India) that month. On April 22, he said, "If India and the United States can successfully cooperate, we will witness a prosperous and peaceful 21st century. But I also believe that if our two countries fail to cooperate, this century may become a dark age for all humanity."
On the same day Vance made his speech, armed militants launched an attack in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region, killing 26 people. Kashmir is a disputed region claimed by both India and Pakistan. The Indian government blamed Pakistan for the attack, and two weeks later launched air strikes on its northern neighbor. Pakistan retaliated, triggering further drone and missile exchanges between the two sides. Vance and Secretary of State Rubio called both countries separately to try to ease the situation.
On May 10, the fighting entered its fourth day. New Delhi was scheduled to hold a press conference to announce a ceasefire. But just before the press conference began, Trump posted on Truth Social, declaring, "After a full night of U.S. mediation, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate comprehensive ceasefire." The Indian government was shocked by this and denied any involvement of Trump in the ceasefire. This issue is sensitive for New Delhi because India insists on not accepting international mediation in the Kashmir issue.
According to The New York Times, Trump called Modi on June 17, expressing how proud he was of personally ending the conflict. It is reported that Trump mentioned in the call that Pakistan was nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize, implying that Modi should do the same. Modi was reportedly very upset and reiterated that the U.S. had nothing to do with the ceasefire.
Several weeks after this call, U.S.-India relations deteriorated. Trump is said to have refused to reach a trade agreement with India because Modi did not make concessions on U.S. agricultural and dairy product exports. Subsequently, he imposed a 25% tariff on India, and then doubled it citing India's oil trade with Russia. Other members of the U.S. government also exacerbated the situation. White House senior official Peter Navarro criticized India in media interviews. Commerce Secretary Rutenberg demanded that India stop buying Russian oil and leave the BRICS group, despite the fact that New Delhi has played a significant role in preventing Beijing and Moscow from turning the BRICS group into an anti-Western organization.
On June 18, Trump hosted Pakistan Army Chief General Munir at the White House
Meanwhile, Pakistan won the favor of the Trump administration. In March, the country arrested an extremist group leader accused of planning the 2021 Kabul airport bombing, which killed 13 U.S. troops. Trump thanked Pakistan in a congressional speech for "helping catch this demon." Months later, the president unexpectedly invited Pakistan Army Chief General Munir to a dinner at the White House. Pakistani officials believed this highly unusual gesture signified a clear thaw in bilateral relations.
Differently from India, Islamabad acknowledged Trump's role in facilitating the ceasefire in Kashmir and expressed generous praise. The country also proposed becoming a hub for Bitcoin and rare earth mining. Furthermore, Pakistani leaders supported the establishment of a collaboration between the country's cryptocurrency committee and the World Free Finance Company, co-founded by Trump's sons. In July, these efforts seemed to bear fruit: Trump agreed to a trade deal with Pakistan, reducing tariffs from 29% to 19%, less than half the current U.S. tax rate on India.
However, Trump's warm embrace of Pakistan conceals the increasingly serious problems it poses to the United States. At the end of last year, Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer of the Biden administration cited declassified intelligence that Pakistan is developing a long-range ballistic missile that could potentially carry a nuclear warhead to strike the U.S. mainland (Pakistan stated that the U.S. assessment was "unfounded"). As a result, the Biden administration sanctioned a Pakistani state-owned enterprise suspected of involvement in the project. However, the Trump administration said nothing about this. Just in early September, Pakistani President Zardari became the first foreign leader to visit China's largest military aviation manufacturing enterprise and pledged to deepen defense industry cooperation with China — reminding the world who Pakistan truly chose to side with.
While Trump weakened the U.S.-India alliance and scolded New Delhi for purchasing Russian oil, Modi's relationship with Russian President Putin has strengthened. The two held two phone calls in August, and Modi reaffirmed his commitment to the India-Russia partnership. In early September, Modi attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin, interacting warmly with the leaders of China and Russia. However, there are still serious differences between India and China. New Delhi views Beijing as its biggest threat, especially since the border clashes in 2020.
This China summit also prompted Trump to leave a strange, fatalistic comment on Truth Social: "It seems we have already lost India and Russia to China. I hope they have a long and prosperous future!"
During the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Tianjin Summit, Indian Prime Minister Modi boarded the vehicle of Russian President Putin. Screenshot from video
Modi called Trump on September 16, and U.S. officials also met in New Delhi to discuss restarting trade negotiations. This may indicate that both sides realize the risk of a complete breakdown of relations. However, the trust needed to restore the interrupted strategic cooperation has almost completely disappeared.
India is not the only Asian partner that the Trump administration has distanced itself from. The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested over 300 Koreans legally entering the U.S. to build a modern battery factory for Hyundai in Georgia, causing strong dissatisfaction in Seoul. On the same day, Trump also pushed forward an investment agreement that could be considered punitive for Japan, angering Japanese officials and business leaders.
Similar actions by Trump have created unprecedented opportunities for China to establish closer partnerships than the U.S. In fact, the China-Russia partnership may have become the strongest bilateral relationship in the world today. China and Russia are closely coordinated, with China helping Russia rapidly rebuild its military power. In exchange, Russia will help China advance its own military modernization, and has already done so. As U.S. Admiral Paparo warned, Russia may provide advanced submarine technology to China. He pointed out that this level of military integration cooperation exceeds many formal alliances, "potentially weakening the U.S. advantage in underwater operations against China."
While Trump neglects India and other allies, China has launched the "Global Governance Initiative," positioning itself as a defender of multilateralism and international law. Of course, the U.S. believes China has been violating these principles. But under Trump, many countries also believe the U.S. is doing the same, and even no longer maintains the superficial gesture of upholding the values it once advocated. At present, most countries around the world are still willing to ally with Washington rather than Beijing. However, if this attitude changes, the U.S. will lose its most crucial advantage over China, and the Trump administration will have to bear the consequences.
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