Israel Assassinated Ali Larijani, Dragging the US into Peril

Israel has fulfilled its promise, eliminating another core figure in Iran's military and political leadership — Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. This move indeed brought Israel closer to another major objective, but it also clearly violated Donald Trump's wishes and interests.

Israel is targeting Iran's top leaders. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to strike immediately once Iranian officials' locations were identified, without needing approval through multiple levels.

On March 17, Israel succeeded again. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced the killing of Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Iran confirmed the assassination: Larijani was tracked down at his daughter's home, and an entire residential neighborhood was destroyed to eliminate this head of the National Security Council. In theory, Tel Aviv, the United States, and its allies should have been equally delighted about this.

"Ali Larijani was a key figure, and all the threads of Iran's domestic and foreign policies were under his control. After the assassination of Khamenei, almost all remaining power in Iran's system was concentrated in his hands," said Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russia-US-Europe Center for Analysis and an international political scholar, explaining to "Glaz" newspaper.

With his personal connections and family influence (Larijani has four brothers, one of whom is an advisor on foreign policy to Khamenei, and another who leads the Islamic Consultative Assembly, responsible for mediating differences between Iran's legislative bodies), Larijani controlled the internal situation, effectively taking over Iran after Khamenei's assassination.

According to traditional war logic, his death should have weakened Iran, clearing the way for the initial Western plan of regime change — "the Iranian people seizing power." Western media believed that the mass protests in Iran in early 2026 were led by Ali Larijani.

But the problem is that today, the United States and Israel no longer target regime change. Moreover, their current goals are conflicting, so the assassination of Ali Larijani has very different implications for both sides.

The U.S. government is desperately trying to extricate itself from this prolonged conflict, which could potentially ruin Trump's presidential campaign. The quick victory plan (after the assassination of Khamenei, his successor would surrender like Venezuela, quickly achieving regime change) has failed, and Iran has united in resistance, launching heavy attacks on U.S. military bases and interests in the Persian Gulf. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised international oil prices, leading to higher fuel prices at American gas stations.

Democrats and even some Republicans accuse Trump of starting an aggressive war that benefits neither the United States. The White House will most likely be forced to cease hostilities within one and a half months (by law, the president can independently launch a two-month war, after which Congress must approve it, and Congress is unlikely to approve this war). Therefore, Trump is using every means — combining persuasion and threats of ground operations — to try to reach a ceasefire agreement that he can label as a victory.

And Ali Larijani was the core diplomat of Iran. "He actually replaced Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi in several diplomatic areas," said Semenov.

Larijani presided over the nuclear issue negotiations, facilitating the 2021 landmark Iran-China agreement, which included a $40 billion investment package, pushing the two countries toward strategic cooperation. He also handled relations with Russia, visiting Moscow multiple times. It was precisely Larijani who possessed all the necessary qualities for negotiations with Trump: prestige and pragmatism.

Certainly, Larijani was seen as a hardliner, loyal to the assassinated Khamenei, and vowed to take revenge against the U.S. and Israel. "These two countries burned the heart of the Iranian nation; we will repay them with the same coin," he stated after Khamenei's assassination.

But even so, as a scholar well-versed in Kantian philosophy, he was not blinded by religious dogma, maintaining a pragmatic and rational attitude.

"Although Ali Larijani belongs to the broader conservative camp, he is a politician with negotiation skills. He is pragmatic and understands when to be firm and when to compromise. Larijani would never drag the country into a life-threatening crisis," said Semenov. However, the ground operations that the U.S. might launch would precisely put Iran into such a crisis.

"Now the U.S. has no idea who to negotiate with. Iranian President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Arakchi are still in office, but no one knows how much influence they actually have in decision-making," said Semenov. Pezeshkian was excluded from the decision-making circle due to his so-called pro-Western stance, while Arakchi could only give interviews to Western media. CNN noted: "The death of Larijani has removed one of the most insightful and influential voices from the Iranian leadership, which may make any ceasefire negotiations more difficult."

This is exactly what Israel aims for. Tel Aviv's goal is to create maximum chaos in the Middle East, to crush the Islamic Republic of Iran, and ideally, to trigger an Iranian civil war. The core means to achieve this goal is to drag the United States completely into the Iran war until ground operations similar to the Iraq War are launched.

To do this, it is necessary to deprive Trump of the possibility of extricating himself from the war through diplomatic talks with the Iranian leadership — in short, to eliminate figures in the Iranian leadership who have influence and negotiation capabilities, and to push the Iranian regime into the hands of the hardline and uncompromising faction that Israel hopes for. These people are willing to take risks, keeping the U.S. firmly in the war, aiming to inflict a strategic blow on the U.S. and force Trump deeper into the war.

And now, such a group is gathering around Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. He lost his parents, sisters, wife, and probably one of his children in this war. He is far from Kantian philosophy, determined to seek revenge at any cost.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618528748668781092/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.