Trump had just hinted at the idea of "TACO," and Israel immediately added fuel to the fire in the Middle East.

On the 17th, the Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement saying that Israeli forces killed Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary, Ali Larijani, in an airstrike on Tehran.

Iran has confirmed Larijani's death, but denied the Fars News Agency's report that "Larijani was killed at his daughter's home."

If Khamenei is already dead, why is Larijani still showing up?

This Israeli operation needs no further explanation; it's a classic "decapitation" tactic, hoping to make Iran collapse by killing a few Iranian senior officials.

What should really be criticized is how poorly Iran's senior officials have handled their security: If Khamenei has already been attacked and killed, Larijani was still walking around as if nothing happened, and just a few days ago, he was openly participating in a parade in Tehran and giving interviews to the media — such a careless attitude naturally gave Israel the opportunity to track his movements.

Back to the main topic. As for the current situation in the Middle East, the impact of Larijani's assassination mainly manifests in two aspects.

First, Israel successfully eliminated a relatively moderate hardliner within Iran's senior leadership.

Larijani is indeed a hardliner, but he is not purely a warmonger — his political career proves this: Larijani served as Iran's nuclear negotiator from 2005 to 2007, and in 2015, despite opposition from conservatives, he pushed the Iran nuclear deal through parliament.

It's not that the security had loopholes, but rather that these Iranian senior officials don't take their own safety seriously at all

Before the latest U.S.-Iran war broke out, Larijani's statements were still relatively moderate, stating that Iran's position on negotiations was "positive" and that "negotiations are a rational approach." It wasn't until after Khamenei was attacked and killed that his stance turned openly hardline.

Another more important point is that Larijani was a key coordinator between Iran's civilian government and the hardline Revolutionary Guards — this "coordinator" doesn't refer to his position, but rather his personal credentials: Larijani once served as a commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and has long been in Khamenei's inner circle. He is currently the only high-ranking official in Iran who can simultaneously connect the Supreme Leader, the civilian government, and the Revolutionary Guards.

Now, with Larijani's assassination, it means that the civilian government led by Iranian President Pezeshkian and the hardline Revolutionary Guards have lost a crucial buffer and intermediary. In the coming days, Iran's retaliation will inevitably escalate significantly.

As soon as Trump showed a hint of TACO, Israel immediately added fuel to the fire

Secondly, the assassination of Larijani also reveals that Israel intends to prolong the war and keep the United States firmly entrenched in the Middle East quagmire.

Recently, Trump's statements on the Middle East situation have shown clear signs of anxiety and incoherence, first saying "the US has won" and "the war will end soon," then threatening or sending ground troops.

At the same time, Trump is facing increasing pressure domestically — on the same day that Israel announced the killing of Larijani, Trump's loyal supporter, the head of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, announced his resignation.

Joe Kent, a staunch MAGA supporter, has also become disillusioned with Trump

Kent stated in an open letter that he "could not go against his conscience to support the US war against Iran," and pointed out that Iran does not pose an imminent threat to the US, and that this war was launched under the pressure of "Israel and its Jewish lobbying groups."

Kent's resignation is not an isolated case; it reflects the dissatisfaction of the Republican isolationists with "fighting for Israel." With the midterm elections approaching and oil prices high, Trump is now caught between escalating the war and seeking a dignified withdrawal (TACO).

However, Israel did not give Trump time to hesitate. After Larijani's death, Iran's retaliation is inevitable. If the US suffers significant casualties again, or if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, this development would not only make the hope for peace in the Middle East even more distant, but also completely ruin Trump's original plan for a quick withdrawal. At that point, he would find it even harder to pull out of the Middle East, and would have to get deeper and deeper into the conflict with Israel.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7618525209569575443/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.