On April 14, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated at the International Institute of Finance (IIF) conference that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) must refocus its efforts on monitoring "global imbalances."

Bessent pointed out that under the backdrop of sluggish sustainable global economic growth, the gradual accumulation of global imbalances represents today's "number one risk" to the global economy. He then turned his criticism directly toward China: "The world cannot afford a China with a trillion-dollar trade surplus."

"China's trillion-dollar surplus is the number one risk to the global economy."

In his speech at the IIF's Spring Meeting on April 14, 2026, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent labeled China’s trillion-dollar trade surplus as the "number one risk to the global economy," calling on the IMF to shift its focus back to monitoring "global imbalances." Bessent said: "In the absence of sustainable growth, the slow accumulation of global imbalances poses the greatest risk." He followed this with a strikingly confrontational statement targeting China: "The world cannot withstand a China with a trillion-dollar trade surplus."

Bessent urged China to reduce its reliance on exports and transition toward a "domestic circulation" model, claiming that a "major agreement" between China and the United States could be reached within the next two to three years, requiring China to cut export capacity and boost domestic demand.

The "trillion-dollar surplus" data cited by Bessent is accurate. According to China Customs Statistics, in 2025 China’s merchandise trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, reaching $118.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%. In the first two months of 2026, China’s trade surplus stood at $213.62 billion—surpassing market expectations—with exports rising by 21.8% year-on-year, maintaining strong momentum.

However, China’s surplus size is not "abnormal":

- The merchandise trade surplus accounts for 5.1% of GDP, lower than South Korea’s 6.1%, and significantly below Germany’s export peak levels from a decade ago (around 7%–8%);

- When accounting for the services trade deficit, China’s total goods and services trade balance amounts to only 4% of GDP;

- China’s surplus sources are highly diversified: the share of merchandise trade surpluses with the U.S., Europe, and ASEAN stands at 23.6%, 24.5%, and 23.2%, respectively, indicating no over-reliance on any single market.

Bessent’s approach reveals a clear strategic logic: shifting the focus from internal imbalances (such as U.S. fiscal deficits and low savings rates) to external imbalances (China’s surplus) as the "number one risk" serves both to justify future tariffs and trade pressures against China, and to steer international institutions’ agendas in a direction favorable to the United States.

On the same day Bessent delivered his remarks, the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook report, downgrading the 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the January projection. The core reason was not China’s trade surplus, but rather soaring oil prices due to Middle East conflicts, rising energy costs, and increased global inflationary pressures. Notably, Bessent made no mention of the Iran war or its impact on the global economy during his speech—despite this conflict having already triggered high-level concern among global policymakers. This "selective omission" warrants serious reflection.

Bessent’s statements carry strong political instrumentalization: redirecting the IMF agenda toward "global imbalance" monitoring essentially aims to secure international institutional support for U.S. trade policy toward China. His proposal of a "two-to-three-year timeline" for achieving a "major agreement" between China and the U.S. at the same event indicates that his core objective is not to dismantle Sino-American economic relations, but rather to use pressure to compel China to make concessions on trade balance and growth models.

Notably, according to foreign media reports, during the IMF’s spring meeting, more urgent geopolitical and economic challenges such as the Middle East conflict were the real focal points for countries. The primary driver behind the IMF’s downward revision of global growth forecasts was the surge in oil prices and the impact of warfare—not trade imbalances. Therefore, Bessent’s characterization of "global imbalances" as the "number one risk" appears somewhat disconnected from the actual concerns of the international community, raising questions about the legitimacy and priority of his policy agenda.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862533955641356/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.