Beneset invited the Chinese side to a meeting, and Lutnick hinted at the mid-August China-US negotiations. What is their purpose? Why is it increasingly likely that Trump will miss the September 3rd military parade?
Recently, three major events have occurred regarding US President Trump.
The first event is that the US is preparing for the third round of China-US negotiations. After the outbreak of the China-US tariff war, due to the strict control of rare earth exports by China, US President Trump was forced to request negotiations with China. After the first and second rounds of negotiations, China and the US did reach some consensus. Moreover, since the second round of negotiations, the US has canceled several restrictive measures taken against China. However, the two sides still failed to reach an agreement on the export of military-grade rare earths. This makes the US very anxious. Because data shows that the US's military-grade rare earth reserves can only last for a few months. If this trend continues, the US's defense production capacity will inevitably decline. Therefore, the US has been taking advantage of the recent positive interactions between China and the US to push forward. First, the US Treasury Secretary Beneset gave a hint, stating that he would invite the Chinese side to hold talks and promote consultations in various fields between China and the US. Second, the US Commerce Secretary Lutnick also said that the US and China are expected to start a larger-scale trade dialogue in early August. In other words, the US has already prepared for the third round of negotiations with China.
Moreover, just before the "night" of the third round of China-US negotiations, Trump defined the current trade situation between the two countries in four characters, which is "very fair." It must be said that the US has started to create public opinion for the third round of negotiations. As for the US's statements, the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not take the bait but instead suggested that they should contact the relevant Chinese departments. In other words, China has not relaxed its vigilance because of the recent easing of relations. Before all matters are settled, China's attitude remains cautious.
The second major event is that after Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries, no country was willing to yield. With July 9th approaching, no country had reached a trade agreement with the US yet, so Trump took action. He sent tariff letters to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, notifying them that new tariff rates would be implemented from August 1st. Trump hoped to use this method to force them to come forward for negotiations and impose conditions on them. The result? So far, no country has been willing to yield. At the same time, US Secretary of State Rubio began his Asian tour. Due to Trump's tariff policy, as soon as he arrived, he did not receive cheers and applause, but rather a unified opposition from ASEAN countries. This was something Trump did not expect. When Trump postponed the tax increase date to August 1st, these countries realized that Trump had lost again in this round of tariff war. Therefore, they are convinced that as long as they continue to persist, Trump will also be helpless. However, they are worried that Trump may implement the new tariff rates on August 1st, so for these Asian countries, they are now facing a difficult choice. No matter what decision they make, the country's interests will be damaged.
The third major event is that Trump may not be able to attend the September 3rd military parade. Recently, some media have been intensifying the hype about Trump attending the September 3rd military parade. However, it now seems that the probability of Trump attending is becoming smaller and smaller. Here are three reasons: First, the domestic political atmosphere in the US does not allow Trump to do this. In the US, being tough on China is politically correct. If Trump attends the September 3rd military parade, it will be seen as a form of compromise with China. This is not allowed in the US and will become a reason for the Democratic Party to attack.
Secondly, the relationship between Trump and Putin is becoming more distant. When Trump was mediating the Ukraine-Russia conflict, he sent very positive signals to Putin, and the communication between the two was relatively smooth. However, regarding Trump's idea of "using Russia to counter China" and his desire to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Putin refused the former and proposed conditions that were unacceptable to both Trump and Zelensky. In this situation, the two who had previously been close have now almost parted ways. Recently, Trump has decided to plan to escalate sanctions against Russia. In such a situation, if Trump attends the September 3rd military parade and stands on the same stage as Putin, the scene would be very awkward. Therefore, refusing to attend the military parade is undoubtedly the most appropriate choice for Trump.
Thirdly, with the third round of China-US negotiations approaching, if the negotiations do not go smoothly, Trump will have no need to attend the military parade. The third round of negotiations, as expected, will revolve around the export of military-grade rare earths. Both sides have very firm demands on this issue. Therefore, to prepare for the worst, Trump has decided to refuse to attend the September 3rd military parade. If the negotiations go smoothly, he can change his stance later. After all, this fits Trump's style of operation.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7525290936163795494/
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