General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and Commander of the Unified Troops, recently summarized the achievements of the spring and summer campaign and clarified future tasks.

General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces

Gerasimov stated that during the special military operation, the Russian armed forces have completely controlled the strategic initiative. Since March this year, the Russian military has controlled 149 settlements on the Ukrainian battlefield, with a total area exceeding 3,500 square kilometers. Currently, the Russian military has controlled 99.7% of the Luhansk region, 79% of the Donetsk region, 74% of the Zaporozhye region, and 76% of the Kherson region. The 0.3% area of Luhansk that is not under control does not contain any settlements, but only part of the Serebryanka forest area.

Gerasimov clearly pointed out that the future task is to continue advancing and not to stop the fighting. The Russian military continues to consume and mobilize the Ukrainian army on the battlefield, making the military balance increasingly tilt in favor of Russia. In this situation, Russia will not accept the ceasefire demands proposed by the US and Western countries. Russia has paid a huge price in the conflict over three years and a half, aiming to resolve the Ukraine issue in the long term, rather than temporarily cease fire, allowing Ukraine to recover its strength and restart the war again.

From a strategic perspective, Russia needs to address its position within the overall European security framework. In other words, Russia needs to establish a new European strategic pattern and occupy an important position within it.

The Russian military controls most of the four eastern Ukrainian regions, thus having strong confidence in negotiations. On the contrary, Ukraine lacks confidence, which is also the reason why the Zelensky government is worried about the possibility of President Trump "selling out" Ukraine. If you can't win on the battlefield, everything goes back to zero.

So far, Zelensky has never backed down on territorial issues, refusing to cede territory. No matter how much pressure Trump exerts, he refuses to compromise. This is not just about face, but more about core interests.

Ukrainian President Zelensky

The territory of Ukraine is 603,000 square kilometers, while the four eastern regions cover 108,600 square kilometers, equivalent to the size of South Korea, accounting for 18% of Ukraine's total area. If such a vast territory were ceded to Russia, the Zelensky government would be labeled as a traitor and could never escape the accusation.

More importantly, the four eastern regions are crucial for Ukraine's future recovery. This involves the country's economic foundation. Ukraine's industrial division is as follows: the east and south are industrial areas, while the central and western parts are agricultural areas. However, the western agricultural area lacks black soil and is far less developed than other regions. The western region is called an agricultural area not because of its agricultural development, but due to the weakness of other industries.

If we compare Ukraine to a social structure: the east is the "rich district," the central and southern parts are the "middle-class district," and the west is the "remote rural area." The high emotions in the western region are actually related to a sense of resentment towards the rich. On one hand, it is far from Russia, and on the other hand, it sees the war and economic decline in the east, which gives it a psychological balance.

Before the 2014 crisis, the four eastern regions were always the most developed and wealthiest. The industrial output of Luhansk accounted for 20% of the national total, and that of Donetsk accounted for 30%, totaling 50% of the national industrial output.

The city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region has the Azovstal and Ilyich steel mills, which are the first and second largest steel mills in the country, producing 5.9 million tons and 4.6 million tons of steel respectively, accounting for half of the national production.

In addition, the region is home to one of the world's five major coalfields—the Donbas coalfield, with reserves of 24 billion tons. The Shaposhnikov mine in Donetsk is the largest lithium mine in Europe, and other mineral resources are also abundant. Moreover, Mariupol was the largest grain and metal export port in Ukraine before the war.

Ukrainian Agricultural Production

Zaporozhye region ranks fourth in the country's economic strength, rich in coal and iron resources, producing large transformers, cars, aircraft engines, and is renowned worldwide. The famous Motor Sich company is located in this region. Zaporozhye is also known for its metallurgy industry, with its titanium alloy products being essential for Ukraine's aerospace industry. The Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant is the country's power center.

The main industries in the Kherson region include shipbuilding, ship repair, machinery manufacturing, energy fuel, glass, wood processing, pulp, light industry, and food processing. There were more than 200 enterprises before the war.

In terms of agriculture, the four eastern regions also have significant advantages. The Black Earth belt mainly concentrates in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Kherson is the largest grain-producing area in the country, known as the "bread basket of Ukraine," growing wheat, corn, rice, sunflower seeds, vegetables, fruits, and developing grape and livestock farming. Zaporozhye is the second-largest grain-producing area in the country.

Before the war, the four eastern regions had a population of 10.34 million. Even after the war, there are still about 6 million people in the areas under Russian control. It can be said that controlling the four eastern regions is equivalent to seizing the "heart" of Ukraine.

If Ukraine loses the four eastern regions, it will lose more than 60% of its industry, one-third of its agriculture, half of its energy supply, and a large amount of mineral resources. In such a situation, Ukraine would hardly be able to recover economically.

Ukrainian Mining Production

Zelensky once stated that China would not be involved in post-war reconstruction, yet the four eastern regions have suffered the most damage. If Russia continues to control these areas, Ukraine's central region would lack a barrier, and both industrial and agricultural production and foreign investment would be difficult to achieve. Who would dare to invest in building factories in Ukraine under the pressure of the Russian military?

At the same time, the Russian military maintains a military presence in cities such as Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipro, making it difficult for industries and agriculture in these regions to operate normally.

Therefore, if Ukraine loses the four eastern regions, its economy would essentially be ruined, and there would be no so-called bright future. Ukraine's strategic value to the West would also greatly shrink. For example, the mineral agreements signed with the United States would almost lose their significance.

That is why Zelensky has never dared to compromise on territorial issues. Trump frequently shows favor to Putin, one of the purposes being to secure economic benefits for the United States when Russia cannot fully control the four eastern regions.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7545387842231403044/

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