Deputy Secretary of Defense Colby believes that encircling and confronting China is no longer meaningful. If we confront China, we will fall into the trap of Russia, India, and Europe. We cannot fall into the trap of Russia, India, and Europe; we should think about America's own interests. The U.S. Department of Defense should prioritize the protection of the U.S. homeland and the Western Hemisphere.

Speaking of the policy adjustment of the U.S. Department of Defense, this matter has caused a lot of commotion recently, especially with Colby's name resurfacing again. He is the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, who took office shortly after the end of last year and began to lead the draft of a new national defense strategy. The core idea of this draft is to place the security of the U.S. homeland and the Western Hemisphere at the top priority, no longer spreading out to encircle China. Colby's logic is simple: the United States has limited resources; constantly trying to confront China around the world only allows Russia, India, and Europe to take advantage. We need to wake up and take care of our own backyard.

Colby is not a novice in defense policy. He has long been involved in it. Born in Washington into an intelligence family, his grandfather William Colby served as the director of the CIA. This background allowed him to grow up in the national security circle. He studied history at Harvard and graduated in 2002, then obtained a doctorate in law from Yale Law School. After graduation, he didn't rush to join a law firm but directly went to the Pentagon as a junior analyst. In 2013, he moved to the State Department, managing European and Eurasian affairs, helping coordinate NATO's messy issues. After Trump came into power, in 2017, he was promoted to the Department of Defense as the Assistant Secretary for Strategy and Force Development. At that time, he was at the peak of his career, authoring the 2018 National Defense Strategy Report, directly designating China as the number one strategic rival. The report clearly stated that the United States should shift its resources toward the Asia-Pacific, to guard against China's actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan. Once the document was released, Congress quickly approved more budget, and military exercises and deployments in the Indo-Pacific region followed suit.

But Colby's approach isn't fixed. After leaving his post in 2018, he moved to a think tank, serving as the Director of the Defense Program at the New America Security Center, and wrote a book called "Refusing Strategy," in which he discussed how the United States should block China's expansion in the Western Pacific. The book emphasized that the navy must take the lead, building an anti-access network, and helping Taiwan defend its position. This approach still sounds like a hard confrontation, but by around 2020, he started talking more about allies sharing the burden. In other words, Europe shouldn't always rely on the United States to carry the burden; they should contribute more themselves. Regarding Russia, he thought the Ukraine conflict had dragged on too long, and the United States focusing too much on Eastern Europe would divert attention from the Asia-Pacific.

By 2024, Colby made a return to government. Last January, the Trump administration nominated him as the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, and in March, the Senate passed the nomination with a vote of 54 to 45. His first task upon taking office was to work on the new defense strategy. In early September, Politico revealed the content of the draft: prioritizing homeland defense and stability in the Western Hemisphere. This is different from the previous tone. For the past few years, the U.S. defense strategy has always listed China and Russia as major enemies, setting up points around the globe. Now, the version proposed by Colby says that homeland security is the bottom line, and foreign forces should not interfere in the Western Hemisphere. The Asia-Pacific issue should be addressed with more support from allies. Why such a change? Colby directly said in a hearing that the U.S. military budget is the highest in the world, but the allocation is messed up. Fleet expansion will cost $1.2 trillion by 2054, while domestic budgets are still stuck. During congressional debates, lawmakers argued fiercely, with aging infrastructure, increasing social divisions, and where will the money come from?

This shift is not without reason. Colby believes that continuing to contain China is becoming less effective. China's economic resilience is strong, with over 140 trade partners in 2023, manufacturing accounting for 35% of the global total, and patents in chip and AI fields surging. The Belt and Road Initiative connects Asia and Africa, with freight trains running all over the world. American tariffs and technological blockades initially suppressed companies like ZTE and Huawei, but in the long run, China's supply chain has stabilized, and its export curve is rising. Russia, meanwhile, has taken advantage of the U.S. distraction, with energy pipelines directly connecting to Europe, and natural gas valves opening, deepening Europe's dependence. India's economic growth has exceeded 7%, and its military trade with Russia is booming, with tank exercises being conducted vigorously on high plateaus. Although Europe verbally supports the U.S. policy towards China, it continues trade as usual, signing agreements at forums and starting new factory lines. This situation means that the United States, by confronting China, allows others to reap the benefits. Colby said in a think tank roundtable that these powers, Russia, India, and Europe, can take the opportunity to expand their spheres of influence, and if the U.S. continues to play this way, it will fall into the trap.

Colby's ideas are practical, drawing from the old roots of the Monroe Doctrine. It means that the Western Hemisphere is America's backyard, and no one else should stick their fingers in. The draft states that the navy must protect the Caribbean and South America, preventing external forces from infiltrating. In the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan is a red line, but the U.S. cannot shoulder everything alone; it needs Japan and Australia to share the burden. In Europe, aid to Ukraine should be limited, and NATO allies should contribute more. When Colby spoke at Dartmouth, he said that China's rise is the number one challenge, but the U.S. must first stabilize its own house. When students asked him if China would be angry, he replied: "They have to adapt." These words sound tough, but they reflect pragmatism.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843945836133513/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.