Recently, the international financial and economic field has been stirred by a decision made by Poland — the Polish government, under the pretext of "national security," unexpectedly closed all road and railway border crossings along its border with Belarus.

This move was like a heavy bomb, accurately hitting the vital lifeline of trade between Central Europe and China.

The "Iron Silk Road" that once connected Asia and Europe without obstacles was suddenly ruthlessly cut off, falling into an unprecedented crisis.

At the border area, mountains of goods became a direct reflection of this crisis.

Thousands of tons of Chinese new energy vehicles, photovoltaic components, and electronic components could not be transported smoothly due to the closure of the border crossings, and had to be piled up at the border, unable to move.

It is worth noting that the volume of trade represented by these goods accounts for 10% of the total trade between China and Europe. The far-reaching impact of this situation is evident.

The trigger for this crisis stems from the sharp escalation of geopolitical tensions.

In early September, a large number of drones suddenly entered Polish airspace, like an uninvited "air raid."

The Polish military quickly entered an emergency state, urgently mobilizing both domestic and NATO air defense systems, successfully shooting down some drones, and decisively closing relevant airspaces and multiple airports.

The Russian Ministry of Defense later issued a statement, clearly denying any plan to attack targets within Poland, and expressed willingness to hold consultations with the Polish Ministry of Defense.

At the same time, Russia and Belarus launched a large-scale joint military exercise named "West - 2025."

This military exercise was massive, with nearly 100,000 troops participating.

The exercise location was in western Belarus and Russia, less than 100 kilometers from the Polish border, and included sensitive areas such as hypersonic missiles and nuclear weapons.

Given this context, Poland, under the so-called "national security" consideration, decided to close all road and railway border crossings leading to Belarus.

However, upon a deeper analysis of Poland's foreign policy over the past few years and its close relationship with the United States, it becomes clear that this seemingly "reasonable" action actually hides more complex political considerations.

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, Poland has positioned itself as the frontline of NATO's eastern wing. The Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration publicly stated that all border crossings would be indefinitely closed until "the safety of Polish citizens is adequately ensured."

This statement means that there is no clear timetable for the resumption of border crossings, further extending the uncertainty of the Central Europe train route.

Before this, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had just visited Warsaw and held in-depth exchanges with the President and Foreign Minister of Poland, reaching important consensus.

Both sides explicitly emphasized in the joint document that they would jointly ensure the safety and smooth operation of the Central Europe train route.

Yet, only a few days later, Poland openly announced the continuation of the closure measures, which is obviously a direct violation of the promise.

This "untrustworthy" behavior not only severely impacted Sino-Polish relations but also transformed the Malaszewicze railway hub, as the gateway of the European Union, from a symbol of regional cooperation into a victim of geopolitical rivalry.

From an economic perspective, Poland's actions are undoubtedly self-destructive.

Over the past decade, the rapid development of the Central Europe train route brought unprecedented opportunities to Poland's local logistics industry.

Transit fees became a stable source of income, and a large number of railway workers, port workers, and logistics companies relied on Central Europe train services to maintain normal operations.

Now, the sudden closure of the border crossings has caused a significant reduction in income, and companies face the severe risk of shrinking or even bankruptcy.

More seriously, Poland is destroying its "European gateway" status.

If China and other countries shift their transport capacity to alternative routes, Poland's hub role will rapidly weaken, and this loss of status may be permanent and irreversible.

From a diplomatic perspective, Poland's actions clearly show an intention to please the United States.

After Trump returned to the White House, the United States maintained a tough stance on Russian policy while demanding European allies to closely cooperate with the U.S. on China-related issues.

Poland tried to express loyalty to the U.S. through this extreme measure, proving itself to be a reliable ally.

As for the economic losses, the Polish government seems naively to believe that it can be compensated by U.S. support.

But this short-sighted calculation may not work, because the U.S. cannot long replace the huge benefits brought by China-Europe trade.

Facing Poland's series of unreasonable actions, China's countermeasures have already been clearly released.

On September 19, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China is willing to deepen cooperation with Russia and other Arctic coastal countries to jointly promote the development and utilization of the Northern Sea Route.

This statement is not accidental. It is not only a strong response to the current situation, but also an important part of China's long-term strategic layout.

The Northern Sea Route has great development potential. Compared to the traditional route through the Suez Canal, the journey can be shortened by one-third, saving a lot of transportation costs.

Currently, Ningbo Port has started preparing for trial voyages of cargo ships, which fully demonstrates China's practical actions and firm determination.

Although the Northern Sea Route still faces many challenges such as climate and environmental protection, it has already shown important significance in responding to geopolitical risks as a strategic option.

At the same time, the South corridor of the Central Europe train route is expanding at an astonishing speed.

The South corridor train from Chengdu to Lodz can reach Europe in 25 days, which is 15 days faster than traditional maritime shipping.

The rail-sea intermodal transport from Guangzhou to Turkey has a cost that is only 60% of air freight.

Although the Caspian Sea corridor currently has longer transit times, the transport volume has increased by 64% year-on-year, showing great development potential.

Data from China Railway Group shows that in the first eight months of this year, the number of trains operated on the South corridor of the Central Europe train route increased by 127% year-on-year, and its share in the total transport volume has risen to 31%.

These data fully indicate that even if Poland continues to block, the main artery of China-Europe trade can still maintain normal operations without being greatly affected.

In summary, the current reality is clear: Poland's tough measures not only fail to provide more security, but also cause it to lose a rare opportunity for stable development.

China's countermeasures are fully prepared, and the future China-Europe trade will focus more on diversified cooperation, reducing dependence on a single channel.

In this intense game, Poland will eventually realize that it is not the winner, but the biggest loser, and its short-sighted actions will bring irreparable hidden dangers to its future.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553247804509815330/

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