【By Observer News, Chen Sijia】On September 22 local time, the Argentine government announced the temporary cancellation of the export withholding tax on agricultural products such as grains, beef, and poultry meat. According to Reuters on the 23rd, several traders revealed that after Argentina introduced this policy, Chinese buyers ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans, which once again dealt a severe blow to American farmers whose exports to China were blocked.

Two traders familiar with the situation said that the soybeans purchased by Chinese buyers per ship are about 65,000 tons, planned for November shipment, with a Cost and Freight (CNF) quote that is $2.15 to $2.30 per bushel above the Chicago Board of Trade's November soybean contract. One bushel of U.S. soybeans is approximately 27.216 kilograms. One trader also said that Chinese buyers have already ordered 15 batches of cargo.

A trader said: "The transaction was completed after Argentina adjusted its export withholding tax policy yesterday. This obviously means that China doesn't need U.S. soybeans." These traders pointed out that China is the world's largest soybean buyer, but has not yet purchased any U.S. autumn harvest soybean cargoes this year.

Argentina usually imposes a 26% export tax on soybeans, but the Argentine government announced on the 22nd that it temporarily canceled the export withholding tax on grains, beef, poultry meat, and other agricultural products, and this measure will last until October 31st. The cancellation of the export withholding tax aims to promote greater exports of agricultural products from Argentina's agriculture sector, to increase the supply of dollars and stabilize the currency exchange rate.

Under the impact of Argentina's new policy, domestic soybean meal futures fell. Traders and analysts told Reuters that after Argentina canceled the export withholding tax, soybean prices became more attractive to China, "but the impact may be short-lived, as the policy will only last for more than a month, and Argentina's overall supply is limited."

Traders also said that China purchasing more soybeans from Argentina has caused new setbacks for American farmers. The trade dispute initiated by President Trump led to the obstruction of soybean exports to China, and American farmers missed billions of dollars in soybean orders during the "golden sales season," while competitors in South America, such as Brazil and Argentina, took advantage to fill the gap.

April 6, 2024, in Arrecifes, Argentina, farmers are harvesting soybeans. Visual China

Reuters also cited the information of several Asian traders on September 10th, stating that China had basically completed the purchase of soybeans for October delivery and had ordered part of the soybeans needed for November, these goods mainly coming from South American countries. Traders said that in previous years, during the same period, China usually purchases 12 to 13 million tons of soybeans for delivery between September and November from the United States.

Soybeans are one of the most important agricultural products in the United States, occupying a core position in U.S. agricultural exports. Of the more than 4 billion bushels of soybeans planted annually by American farmers, nearly a quarter is exported to China. Last year, the value of soybeans imported by China from the United States was nearly $13 billion, and this figure was about $2 billion 20 years ago.

However, after Trump initiated the trade dispute, Chinese orders for U.S. agricultural products dropped sharply, and American farmers suffered heavy losses. Dan Bass, president of Chicago Agricultural Resources, estimated that if China does not enter the U.S. soybean market before mid-November, the total loss of U.S. soybean sales to China could reach as high as 14 to 16 million tons.

Due to limited progress in the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, U.S. agricultural exports remain obstructed, and Chinese companies have gradually turned to purchasing soybeans from Brazil, and South American countries are rapidly seizing the market. Last year, more than 70% of the soybeans imported by China came from Brazil, doubling from 15 years ago.

Customs data shows that in 2024, the import volume of soybeans from the U.S. accounted for 20% of China's total soybean imports, a significant drop from 41% in 2016. In January-July 2025, China imported 42.26 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, while the total amount of soybeans imported from the U.S. was only 16.57 million tons.

At a breakfast meeting held in Washington last month, Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng pointed out that China and the U.S. are both the most important agricultural producers and consumers in the world, jointly supporting nearly 40% of global food production and almost a quarter of global food consumption. China has a comparative advantage in labor-intensive agricultural products, while the U.S. mainly produces large-scale, land-intensive agricultural products through mechanization and large-scale production. Both sides can complement each other's strengths and achieve mutual benefits.

Xie Feng stated that agriculture should not be politicized or exploited, and farmers should not bear the cost of the trade war. Restrictions on Chinese citizens and enterprises purchasing farmland are purely an excuse under the guise of national security, and are actually political manipulation. It is a case of hypocrisy, using self-interest to undermine Sino-U.S. agricultural cooperation. China is willing to work with the U.S. to implement the important consensus of the two heads of state, give full play to the role of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, enhance consensus, reduce misunderstandings, strengthen cooperation, share development dividends, and return to the path of mutual benefit and win-win results.

Regarding whether the Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations will discuss increasing the import of U.S. soybeans, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jia Kun responded on September 23 that specific issues should be addressed to the relevant Chinese authorities. "I would like to emphasize that the tariff war and trade war do not benefit any party. Both sides should resolve related issues through consultations on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit."

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553223415595794984/

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