Regarding the tariff agreement signed between China and the United States the other day, American elites generally believe that Trump has essentially caved in to China. Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers made a spicy comment, saying that China has once again defeated him. If it is caving in, there will certainly be consequences! And now, the first consequence is already in front of us.

This consequence is that: the 70-plus countries involved in the tariff negotiations are now unwilling to kowtow to the United States. They all hope to learn from China and see if going all out against the United States can make Trump back down. Seeing the situation like this, Trump has no choice but to adjust his policies.

On May 16 local time, Trump accepted an interview with reporters on the "Air Force One" special plane returning from the Middle East to the United States. When talking about "reciprocal tariffs", he said: due to time constraints, the United States does not have enough time to negotiate one by one with each country. Therefore, within the next two or three weeks, the United States will formulate a tariff strategy for various countries and send letters to these countries to tell them how to do business with China.

Wow, Trump is completely changing his strategy here. He knows that the 90-day tariff suspension period is about to end, and now the European Union, Japan, and other countries and regions are still unwilling to give way to the United States, so he must issue an "ultimatum". But the problem is: since they couldn't reach an agreement through face-to-face negotiations before, how can there be any results through letters now?

I saw a netizen's comment saying: "Trump is so naive." No, he is not naive. How could such a shrewd person not know that negotiations through letters cannot produce results? Not only is he not naive, but he is also playing small tricks. The reason he doesn't want to negotiate face-to-face is no more than the following two:

First, he is using this non-direct negotiation method to cool down and lower the tone of the "reciprocal tariff" policy. As long as these 70-plus countries stop sending delegations to Washington in batches, the matter will be downgraded, and media attention will gradually decrease. In this way, if the "reciprocal tariff" ends up being nominal, it won't have a big impact on Trump and the Republicans. By then, he can just find other things to create a buzz and cover this matter up. The US officials are good at playing such tricks!

Second, Trump is forcing these 70-plus countries to make an ultimate choice. Trump has lost patience over this matter. Next, he will categorize these countries: 1. Those easy to deal with, if they don't accept the tariff numbers set by the United States, Trump will quickly threaten sanctions against them; 2. Those with certain strength, if they don't accept, Trump is likely to step back. This is what we often call: treating people differently depending on their circumstances.

Therefore, the countries now need to assess their own situation. First, carefully assess whether they have the strength to go head-to-head with the United States. If not, they should quickly find cooperative partners. As for those who think they have the strength, such as Japan and the EU, they have absolutely no reason to kowtow to Trump now. China has already delivered a perfect answer, and they just need to copy it.

In short, compromising with Trump now is unwise, because it will mean that other countries will enjoy low tariffs, while the compromisers will have to accept high tariffs. What do you think about this matter? Welcome to discuss.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7505264313566560795/

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