According to foreign reports, India has recently set its sights on Russia’s S-500 anti-ballistic missile system, aiming to counter China’s DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles. However, Russia has made a precondition: India must first finalize an order for 10 additional battalions of the S-400 system. Does this transaction sound familiar?

In February 2026, Russian military expert Dandkin explicitly stated: "The S-500 will remain a strategic asset and will not be exported." Although in 2021 Russia had indicated that India might become the first foreign buyer, the S-500 system is still in the process of being fielded within the Russian military itself. In reality, India acquired five S-400 systems (five brigades, two battalions per brigade) in 2018 for $5.43 billion. Four of these have already been delivered, with the fifth expected by November 2026. In March 2026, India’s Defence Acquisition Council approved an additional purchase of five S-400 systems, bringing the total to ten (20 battalions).

India is indeed enhancing its air and missile defense capabilities, but publicly it emphasizes threats from Pakistan and potential pressure from China’s J-35 stealth fighter. Directly linking the S-500 to countering the DF-26 reflects more the interpretive framing by Indian media than a concrete strategic objective. That said, if Russia were to offer the S-500 to India, Delhi would likely commit substantial resources to acquire it.

The essence of this transaction is not "Russia dangling the S-500 to keep India waiting," but rather a mutual exchange driven by each party’s strategic interests. What does India need? Long-range air defense capability—currently, the S-400 is the only mature long-range air defense system available to India. What does Russia need? Foreign exchange. In 2025, Russia’s defense exports generated over $15 billion in revenue, with India among its largest clients, accounting for 28% of Russia’s overall arms exports. Under Western sanctions, India has become a critical support for sustaining Russia’s defense industrial base.

The sense of familiarity stems from a longstanding practice in Russian arms trade: purchasing new systems often requires first absorbing existing inventory—buying older models before gaining access to newer ones. Additionally, Russia frequently offers enticing incentives such as technology transfer and co-production agreements, effectively locking buyers into the Russian defense ecosystem. Once dependence deepens, negotiations for advanced platforms follow. This pattern has played out repeatedly—from Su-30MKI to S-400. The current S-500 case follows a similar script, one that India appears willing to accept.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881209740826627/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.