According to a report by the U.S. magazine NSJ on October 23, China's H-20 stealth bomber, announced in 2016, has yet to be publicly unveiled for its first prototype flight, and there are no reliable satellite images or leaked photos available for verification, which has led to a contradictory and anxious attitude from U.S. media and intelligence circles towards the H-20.

On one hand, it is portrayed as a strategic game-changer that China is about to possess, while on the other hand, there is no proof that the H-20 actually exists. This has caused U.S. intelligence assessments to be inconsistent, making it difficult to determine how to respond, but they cannot ignore it. Even if it is a system that may not exist, they still need to enter a continuous investment track.

The U.S. media adopts an attitude of both anger and impatience. They can't see real evidence, yet they can't believe it doesn't exist. They consider the H-20 to be the real "ghost bomber," rather than the American B-2 bomber, which is also known as the Ghost.

American Bomber

It is understandable that the U.S. would be confused by this ghost-like strategy. If Iran were to develop a stealth strategic bomber, the U.S. would not invest much effort in paying attention. But China is different; China really can build it.

In modern great power competition, the value of intelligence and early warning lies in reducing the unknown. However, when the unknown itself becomes a weapon, the intelligence system is forced to follow.

The U.S. strategic assessment has two habits: one is to prepare based on the worst-case scenario, and the other is that political and media magnifying glasses will amplify ambiguous intelligence into urgent issues.

Every vague clue about the H-20 will give rise to a series of worst-case scenarios. If these issues are not promptly denied, they will be pushed back to become urgent events that must be addressed immediately.

At the same time, through limited information releases, China gradually pushes its opponents into a dilemma where they have to be cautious but uncertain.

American intelligence officials cannot easily make public conclusions, otherwise they risk being held accountable by political opponents. They also cannot recklessly deny the possibility, otherwise the consequences would be even more serious. Eventually, this leads to a self-reinforcing fog — it's not China trying to scare the U.S., but the U.S. constantly scaring itself.

H-20 has never been exposed

The U.S. media pointed out at the end of the article that, regardless of the truth, before China proves it, the H-20 is more like a "statement of strategic intent."

But this intention alone is enough to force the U.S. to spend a large amount of budget.

The U.S. does not spend money based on actual weapons that appear, but rather on the worst possible threats that could emerge.

Once intelligence provides a hint of such a possibility, Congress hearings, media coverage, and contractor lobbying will quickly follow up.

Contractors will use the issue of countering stealth bombers to secure contracts for radar, interception, electronic warfare, and long-range early warning systems;

Congressmen will push for additional funding under the pretext of national security;

And the decision-making layer is part of the military-industrial complex.

They want taxpayers' money to flow into their pockets in a legitimate way, so they need to keep exaggerating the narrative. In the end, some people will truly believe it, while those who don't believe it won't expose it for their own interests.

Sino-U.S. Competition

So now there is a situation where, even if the H-20 hasn't appeared, just this kind of ambiguous deterrence has, to some extent, filled the air-based gap in China's nuclear triad. That is, the H-20 doesn't need to be revealed or used in combat; its non-appearance itself generates deterrence.

This is the brilliance of China. The U.S. doesn't know whether the H-20 is not seen because of good secrecy, and the U.S. can't bet on the absence of the H-20. But if it exists, with such extreme secrecy, how powerful must this strategic bomber be? Does it mean that the H-20 is actually combat-ready, but the U.S. just doesn't know?

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564675329806090795/

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