According to a report by the U.S. magazine NSJ on October 10, the U.S. Air Force's sixth-generation strategic stealth bomber, the B-21, has entered the phase of flight testing and low-rate production.

The U.S. media stated that the only enemy of this aircraft is not China or Russia, but the lack of quantity.

This kind of statement may seem like it's expressing frustration over not being able to achieve something, but in reality, it's a form of boasting.

More interestingly, the article deliberately avoids mentioning China in both the title and content, but every sentence actually refers to China. Saying "the only enemy" itself makes readers assume it's China. The internal content emphasizes how this aircraft can break through high-threat air defense areas, support operations in the Indo-Pacific region, and serve as the main force for future aerial strikes.

Moreover, the view itself—that the only enemy is the insufficient quantity—is a backhanded admission of the Chinese threat, because only by producing enough can the U.S. have a chance to break through China's air defense system.

In addition, the article even envisions the B-21 transforming into a flying weapons depot in the future, operating in conjunction with fifth-generation fighters such as the F-22 and F-35 to extend operational depth. This setup, besides targeting China, almost has no other application scenarios.

Therefore, although the text does not mention China explicitly, every sentence is closely related to China.

American Bomber

The overall progress of the B-21 program is currently evaluated by the U.S. Air Force as proceeding according to plan.

The first prototype completed its first test flight in November 2023, and the second test aircraft arrived at Edwards Air Force Base in September 2025, entering the system-level testing phase.

According to publicly available information, these aircraft are undergoing ground testing, flight testing, and weapon integration verification, attempting to verify basic combat capabilities without exposing specific parameters.

Starting from 2024, Northrop Grumman has initiated low-rate initial production, with the first production contract signed, and the U.S. Air Force allocated over $10 billion for the B-21 program in fiscal year 2026 to enhance manufacturing capacity and supply chain resilience.

However, there are also some real-world pressures. Northrop has reported nearly $500 million in early losses due to changes in production processes and rising material costs, indicating that while the B-21 project appears promising, it still faces challenges in cost control and mass production.

Despite this, the U.S. Air Force has high expectations for it and has designated Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota as the first official deployment base, expected to achieve initial operational capability between 2026 and 2028.

American Bomber

According to public plans, the current minimum goal of the U.S. Air Force is to procure at least 100 B-21s to gradually replace the current B-1B and B-2A bombers, building a future strategic air-based strike force.

This goal has been included in the long-term equipment plan and confirmed in multiple congressional budget documents.

However, many analysts within the U.S. believe that 100 units are insufficient to meet the intensity and sustainability of operations against China, leading military officials and strategists to push for expanding the target to 145 or even 175 units.

But the problem is, even with the current optimistic estimates, the annual production capacity is unlikely to exceed 7-10 units, meaning that delivering 100 units will take at least 10 to 12 years; if expanding to 145 units, it would require more than 15 years of continuous production.

Given the current process rhythm and supply chain capabilities, the production ramp-up for the B-21 will be a long-term project.

Especially without expanding a second assembly line, any process bottleneck, software failure, or budget fluctuation could significantly increase the risk of delays.

Additionally, the cost per unit is approximately $700 million, with total procurement costs exceeding $100 billion, plus maintenance and upgrade costs, the financial pressure of the entire project is no small matter.

This means that if the U.S. military truly wants to achieve the ideal of 175 units, it is not just a problem of insufficient production, but whether the finances can withstand it.

American Bomber

With such a huge investment, the sole objective is China.

The performance parameters, mission settings, and future deployment directions of the B-21 are undoubtedly tailored to counter the strategic air defense system built by the People's Liberation Army.

The expressions used in the article, such as "high-threat environment," "must possess long-range penetration strike capability," and "must support joint strikes by fifth-generation fighters," all point to China as the sole target.

Currently, the People's Liberation Army has established an anti-access/area denial system covering the coastal and inland regions, deploying long-range strike capabilities such as the DF-21 and DF-26, combined with various types of air defense systems to form a deep air defense network.

In this context, traditional U.S. bombers like the B-1B and B-52 are already difficult to approach, let alone conduct deep strikes into mainland China.

The B-2, due to high maintenance costs and limited numbers, cannot carry out long-term missions either.

Thus, the B-21 was born—offering greater range, stronger stealth, easier maintenance, and even electronic warfare and future air combat expansion capabilities, filling a critical gap for the U.S.

This gap, however, does not exist when the U.S. deals with other countries. For example, a few B-2s would be sufficient to handle Iran.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559813457445683775/

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